从加拉加斯看，1月3日凌晨发生了轰炸与空中轰鸣，至黎明或有约100人死亡，而自2013年起执政的尼古拉斯·马杜罗被美国特种部队抓获；《经济学人》委托弗吉尼亚研究公司Premise以手机应用对600名委内瑞拉居民进行加权调查，提供了最早的反应之一。民意显示恐惧很快转为欣喜，但对未来愿景与唐纳德·特朗普总统并不一致。
马杜罗遭到深度憎恨：仅13%的受访者对其被捕表示哪怕轻微的反对，而超过一半表示突袭后对美国的看法有所改善。接近五分之四认为一年后政治局势会更好，几乎同样多认为个人经济状况会改善；在其统治下，经济萎缩了70%。
对美国“治理”该国与石油兴趣的接受度偏高：接近一半支持某种形式的美国治理，仅18%反对；在石油控制上，略高于四分之一选择美国政府，约三分之一选择委内瑞拉政府，接近30%选择私营公司。关于领导人，超过三分之一认为埃德蒙多·冈萨雷斯应立即就任，三分之二主张重新选举，其中91%要求一年内举行且多数希望仅六个月内；仅10%甚至部分同意德尔茜·罗德里格斯完成任期至2031年，且仅13%对其持好感，她在“确保政治稳定能力”上仍落后玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多30个百分点。
Seen from Caracas, the small hours of January 3rd brought bombs and aircraft roar; by dawn perhaps about 100 people were dead, and Nicolás Maduro—Venezuela’s authoritarian leader since 2013—had been seized by American special forces. Exclusive Economist polling by Premise, conducted via a mobile app with 600 Venezuelan residents and weighted by age and sex, offers one of the first readings of the reaction.
Maduro was intensely disliked: only 13% even mildly opposed his capture, and more than half said their opinion of America improved after the raid. Nearly four in five expect the political situation to be better in a year, and almost as many expect their personal economic situation to improve; the economy shrank by 70% under his rule.
Support is relatively high for US involvement and oil-focused plans: almost half back some form of American governance while just 18% oppose it; on oil control, just over a quarter choose the American government, about a third the Venezuelan government, and nearly 30% private companies. On leadership, more than a third say Edmundo González should take office, two-thirds want new elections, and of those 91% want them within a year (most within six months); only 10% even somewhat agree Delcy Rodríguez should finish the term to 2031, just 13% view her favourably, and she still trails María Corina Machado by 30 percentage points on perceived capacity to ensure political stability.
Source: Venezuelans believe Donald Trump has offered them a better future
Subtitle: An exclusive poll for The Economist also reveals an overwhelming desire for democracy
Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 05:53 上午