为《经济学人》进行的民调发现，超过一半的委内瑞拉人支持美国突袭抓捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗，五分之四预计政治和个人经济都将在12个月内变好。与此同时，十分之九希望被政权在2024年盗取的选举结果得到尊重，或在一年内举行新选举，尽管特朗普称他将与临时总统德尔西·罗德里格斯一起“管理”委内瑞拉。
特朗普在1月6日表示，委内瑞拉将向美国“交出”3000万至5000万桶石油，其中最初的3000万桶大致相当于该国已满的原油储存能力。获得美国许可的贸易商（包括维多和托克集团）据称向布伦特提供每桶约8美元的折扣（而12月中旬为21美元），一些中国买盘出价为13美元折扣，据称已完成一笔5亿美元交易，本月将有13艘空载“清洁”油轮抵达，总运力1500万桶（雪佛龙4艘、托克集团1艘）。
扣除贸易商费用后的净收益将支付到托管账户，其中20%至30%将以美元特许权使用费汇给国家，其他部分覆盖PDVSA成本，并可能让PDVSA的份额作为未来主权基金留在由美国保管的账户中。除石油外，政权在1月8日宣布释放囚犯，但截至六天后仅确认释放了800多名已记录政治犯中的84人，同时特朗普在1月14日称赞罗德里格斯，并计划在1月15日与玛丽亚·科丽娜·马查多会面。
Polling for The Economist finds more than half of Venezuelans support a U.S. raid to seize Nicolás Maduro, and 4 in 5 expect both politics and their personal economy to be better within 12 months. At the same time, 9 in 10 want the stolen 2024 election result respected or new elections held within a year, even as Mr Trump says he will “run” Venezuela with interim president Delcy Rodríguez.
Trump said on January 6 that Venezuela would “turn over” 30m–50m barrels of oil to the U.S., with an initial 30m barrels roughly matching the country’s full crude-storage capacity. Traders with U.S. licences (including Vitol and Trafigura) are reportedly offering discounts of about $8 a barrel to Brent (versus $21 in mid-December), some Chinese bids are at $13, a $500m sale is said to be done, and 13 empty clean tankers totaling 15m barrels (4 Chevron, 1 Trafigura) are due this month.
Net proceeds would be paid into escrow, with 20–30% wired as dollar royalties to the state, other tranches covering PDVSA costs and potentially leaving PDVSA’s share as a future sovereign fund under U.S. custody. Beyond oil, the regime announced prisoner releases on January 8, but as of six days later only 84 of 800+ documented political prisoners were confirmed freed, amid Trump’s praise of Rodríguez on January 14 and a planned Trump–María Corina Machado meeting on January 15.
Source: Donald Trump’s Venezuela oil deal is already up and running
Subtitle: It seems more collaborative than coercive. That will worry the democratic oppositio
Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 07:52 上午 | Caracas