监管与市场数据显示成长与集中同时升温：澳洲私募信贷规模约2000亿澳元；今年仅在澳交所就新增11档私募信贷基金、募资约32亿澳元。ASIC并指约一半交易已与房地产融资相关，且部分不动产基金存在估值不一致、费用不透明与利益冲突管理不佳等问题，零售导向产品尤需留意。
利率预期的转折加剧风险定价：通膨高于预期后，交易员已把明年至少1次、可能2次的升息纳入定价，且可能在8月前反映。由于私募信贷多为浮动利率，紧缩会挤压高杠杆借款人、抬升违约风险。ASIC对28档基金的检视中，曾出现「多数贷款违约」的个案，并曾暂禁某基金在澳销售，提示披露与适合度风险。
Major Australian CIOs warn private credit is getting riskier because exposures are heavily tilted to property. They expect real-estate-linked losses to rise if the Reserve Bank of Australia shifts toward rate hikes next year, since higher funding costs can intensify financing pressure. Colonial First State, which oversees about A$177 billion, says it is avoiding the sector as rates move up from low levels.
The market is growing while concentration stays high. Australia’s private-credit stock is about A$200 billion, and 11 new private credit funds listed on the ASX this year raised around A$3.2 billion. ASIC says roughly half of deals are tied to real-estate finance, and flags inconsistent valuations, opaque fees, and weak conflict management, especially in retail-focused funds.
Rate expectations have flipped with stronger inflation: traders now price at least one and possibly two hikes by August. Because much private credit is floating rate, tightening can squeeze indebted borrowers and raise default risk. ASIC reviewed 28 funds and found one where most loans were in default, and it has also temporarily barred marketing of a US private credit fund in Australia over suitability and disclosure concerns.
