文章以日本在2025年有两位科学家获得诺贝尔奖（医学与化学）为引子，但强调其关键成果多源自数十年前的投入，反映当下基础研究土壤可能正在干涸。数位化使研究更贴近应用与商业化，AI、量子等「热门」领域又被资本与算力雄厚的美国大型科技公司主导，小国或小公司在规模与速度竞赛中被甩开。
日本太空研发被用来说明「耐心资本」的回报：政府自1970年代到2000年代透过JAXA长期资助基础技术，1977年发射的向日葵卫星（Himawari）衍生出气象、防务、金融分析等用途；相关计划也培养人才，带动新创，过去十年有6家太空新创上市。太空研发常需至少5年、甚至数十年；例子是2000年代初在ISS「希望号」舱段（Kibo）的微重力蛋白晶体实验，衍生出TAS-205药物候选，可能延缓杜兴氏肌肉失养症（每2,500名男孩约1名），并具将寿命翻倍的潜力，第三期试验将持续到2027年。
然而JAXA也遭「为研究而研究」的批评；作者指出其经费仅为NASA的十分之一仍被要求短期商业回收，并以2024年设立、规模1兆日圆（约67亿美元）、为期10年的「战略基金」偏好可商转与技术展示来说明趋势。学者警告研究者已短缺，且诺奖得主多依赖30至40年前的资助，若持续削弱蓝天研究，可能是最后一波「诺奖热」；文章最后以1980年代播下、2025年开花对照，追问今天是否在为2065年的突破播种，主张国家需同时押注快周期AI/量子与慢燃型基础研究。
Japan’s 2025 Nobel wins (medicine and chemistry) are framed as payoffs from decades-old work, raising fears that today’s conditions for breakthroughs are drying up. Digitization has pushed “basic” research closer to applications, while capital- and compute-intensive fields like AI and quantum are dominated by large U.S. tech players, leaving smaller countries and firms behind in a scale-and-speed race.
Japan’s space program is offered as evidence for patient capital: from the 1970s to the 2000s, government funding via JAXA built enabling technologies without tight commercial endpoints. Results included Himawari (launched 1977) with broad uses, plus a talent pipeline that later fed startups—six space startups have gone public in the last decade. Space work often needs at least five years and sometimes decades; ISS Kibo microgravity protein-crystal experiments begun in the early 2000s produced TAS-205, a Duchenne muscular dystrophy candidate (affecting 1 in 2,500 boys) that may double lifespan, with Phase III trials running through 2027.
The same history carries a warning: despite JAXA funding being only one-tenth of NASA’s, critics pushed against “research for research’s sake,” reinforcing Japan’s shift to short-term exits. The 2024 Strategy Fund—1 trillion yen (~$6.7B) over 10 years—prioritizes commercial-ready demonstrations, risking depletion of the “primordial soup” of emerging tech and worsening a reported researcher shortage. With Nobel careers built on funding from 30–40 years ago and the next prizes imagined for 2065, the argument is for dual commitments: fast-cycle AI/quantum innovation alongside slow-burn basic research.