9月下旬关于外国游客踢奈良神鹿的说法缺乏证据，但“外国人威胁”已被推到日本政治的中心。7月的参议院选举中，主张“日本人优先”的参政党席位从1席跃升至15席，促使自民党对游客和移民收紧管控；民调显示参政党支持在回落，而自民党支持在小幅回升。
自2010年以来，外国居民人数翻倍至370万人，但仍仅约占日本人口的3%，而经合组织平均为15%。日本国际协力机构估计，为了实现哪怕1.24%的年度GDP增长，日本到2040年可能需要把外国劳工数量增加到近700万人（约为目前的三倍），凸显与“没有移民政策”的说法相冲突的劳动力需求趋势。
旅游也在飙升：2024年访日游客达3690万人（超过2010年的4倍），2016年设定的年4000万人目标很可能在2025年被突破，旅游如今已是仅次于汽车的第二大出口。尽管法国在约只有日本一半人口的情况下接待的游客数仍超过日本的两倍，但游客集中带来的拥挤、弱日元下的价差（5000日元午餐对比500日元便当）以及“低价扫货”买房的担忧，推动了从人数上限与更严执法到提高游客税、永久居留语言要求和限制购房等提案；与此同时，47个都道府县知事联合支持多元文化主义，且农村雇主报告高度依赖外籍劳工（例如四国某渔业合作社员工有一半是印尼人）。
A late-September claim that foreign tourists were kicking Nara’s sacred deer lacks evidence, yet “foreigner threats” have moved to the center of politics. In July’s upper-house election, the Japan-First Sanseito jumped from 1 to 15 seats, prompting the LDP to harden controls on tourists and migrants as polls show Sanseito slipping and LDP support edging up.
Foreign residents have doubled since 2010 to 3.7m, still only about 3% of Japan’s population versus a 15% OECD average. JICA estimates Japan may need to triple foreign workers to nearly 7m by 2040 to reach even 1.24% annual GDP growth, underscoring a labor-demand trend that clashes with claims of having “no immigration policy”.
Tourism has also surged: 36.9m visitors came in 2024 (over 4× 2010), a 2016 goal of 40m a year is likely to be surpassed in 2025, and tourism is now the second-largest export after cars. Despite France hosting more than twice Japan’s visitor count with about half the population, concentrated crowds, a weak-yen price gap (5,000-yen lunches vs 500-yen bentos), and fears of cheap property buying have driven proposals from caps and stricter enforcement to higher tourist taxes, language rules, and purchase limits, even as all 47 prefectural governors backed multiculturalism and rural employers report heavy reliance (e.g., half a Shikoku co-op’s staff are Indonesian).
Source: Why is Japan souring on foreign workers and tourists?
Subtitle: It is a dangerous attitude for an ageing country that needs more immigrants
Dateline: 1月 08, 2026 07:16 上午 | NARA and TOKYO