中国国民党（KMT）与中国共产党（中共）关系上经历了长期敌对：中共在1949年后被迫退守台湾、KMT长期强化美援军力，直到1991年才正式放弃武力“统一”目标；如今KMT又成为台湾议会最大在野党，令这段历史成为当前交锋的背景。崔立文（Cheng Li-wun）在4月7日至12日访华，是十年来首位访华的KMT党魁，恰逢1个月后习近平与唐纳德·特朗普拟在北京峰会之际，这使其行程被视为可能影响美国对台立场与政策讨论的关键变量。
在上海、南京与北京行程中，崔立文仍强调反对“台独”、重申“九二共识”，并称台湾不该沦为地缘政治棋子、也不注定与大陆开战；若坚持和平措辞，此行或被视为成功。她与台湾总统赖清德对决中，民意却分裂：3月民调显示56%受访者认为与习近平会面的不利大于有利，且多数台湾民众倾向认同自己是“台湾人”、不信任中国政府、也不支持统一，显示反对声浪和安全忧虑并存。
更大的阻力来自双方政治结构：台政府警告KMT可能陷入北京“分而治之”，美国两党参议员在台访时要求尽快扩军备以“防止灾难性冲突”，凸显外部制衡强化；若民众对美国安全承诺的不确定感上升，崔立文认为观感可能转向和谈，但KMT内部对其路线已出现裂痕。KMT过去在2008—2016年曾放开经贸与交通往来，但2025年后争议核心转向防务预算与路线选择——党内从12亿美元（约）追加预算主张到卢秀燕提出25至31亿美元（接近民进党的40亿美元）之间，反映“亲陆”与“亲美”两派的权力竞争会直接决定2025年选局与2028年总统图景。
The CCP-KMT relationship is framed by decades of conflict: the KMT retreated to Taiwan in 1949, fortified it with U.S. support, and only in 1991 renounced forceful reunification; despite that history, the KMT is now Taiwan’s largest opposition force in parliament. Cheng Li-wun’s April 7–12 visit is the first by a KMT leader in ten years, arriving just before Xi Jinping’s expected April summit with Donald Trump, making her statements potentially useful for Beijing’s diplomacy and propaganda.
In talks across Shanghai, Nanjing, and Beijing, Cheng repeated anti-independence language and the “1992 consensus,” and said Taiwan should not become a geopolitical “pawn” or be destined for war; if she stays on that script, the trip can be framed as a peace-oriented success. Yet Taiwan’s domestic mood is still skeptical: a March poll found 56% believed the drawbacks of her meeting with Xi outweighed the benefits, while most respondents identify as Taiwanese, distrust China’s government, and reject immediate unification even as many support higher defense spending.
The domestic political fight is now as decisive as cross-strait strategy. Taiwan’s government warns of Beijing’s divide-and-rule approach, and U.S. lawmakers pressed Taiwan to increase defense spending to deter war, a contrast to Cheng’s role in delaying approval. The KMT’s internal split is widening over security economics: while the party called for about $12bn, Lu Shiow-yen later suggested $25bn–$31bn, near the DPP’s $40bn target, signaling that the 2008–2016 Taiwan model of expanded ties is less electorally decisive than voter confidence trends before the November local elections and 2028 presidential cycle, with Xi still tied to a 2049 reunification horizon.
Source: Taiwan and China are preparing for a summit, of sorts
Subtitle: A trip to the mainland by the KMT’s leader exposes a rift in the party
Dateline: 4月 09, 2026 04:24 上午 | TAIPEI