特朗普推动乌克兰和平的方案往往呈现固定循环：先由华盛顿抛出更偏向克里姆林宫的开场，乌克兰及盟友再试图“软化”，形成折中后被俄罗斯加码否决，随后压力重新落到乌克兰身上。12月8日，泽连斯基拒绝在缺乏可信安全保障下割让领土；特朗普随即指称乌克兰在输掉战争并抨击其避选，当晚泽连斯基称若美欧能保证安全，愿在未来60至90天内举行选举。
外界称特朗普要在圣诞节前强推协议的说法被认为夸大，但基辅确实承压；据报道，美方私下向欧洲递交与俄罗斯的广泛商业交易构想，其中部分资金来自欧洲希望动用、规模达数十亿美元的冻结俄资产。谈判轨道也分裂：去年春天情报系统曾拟秘密框架，后被特朗普特使维特科夫主导的方案取代；该方案在特朗普私下同意参议员格雷厄姆推动新制裁后的次日浮出水面，被指意在“阻断制裁”，而12月7日特朗普宣称俄方完全同意之际，克宫顾问乌沙科夫在此前数日已称普京态度“批判甚至消极”。
战场上，俄罗斯多年未取得重大突破，但“血腥冲击”正在加速；波克罗夫斯克这座城市曾顶住16个月进攻，如今局势失控风险上升，乌军加固北缘防线却据称以削弱其他战线为代价，指挥官警告西维尔斯克若失守将打开撤离道路并引发恐慌。政治上，11月28日反腐调查促使总统办公室主任叶尔马克离任，12天后仍未任命继任者；三名人选被讨论，而泽连斯基在12月9日甚至提出可能取消总统办公室。
Trump’s peace bids for Ukraine often follow a loop: a Kremlin-friendly opener from Washington, a scramble to soften it, a compromise Russia rejects with impossible add-ons, then renewed pressure on Ukraine. On December 8 Zelensky rejected ceding territory without credible security guarantees; Trump countered that Ukraine was losing and attacked Zelensky for avoiding an election, prompting Zelensky to say he could hold one in 60–90 days if safety were guaranteed by America and Europe.
Claims that a deal is being forced by Christmas are described as exaggerated, but Kyiv is under pressure; U.S. officials have floated broad business deals with Russia, partly financed by billions in frozen Russian assets Europe wants to use to keep Ukraine solvent. Negotiations also split into tracks: a secret intelligence outline last spring was overtaken by Steve Witkoff’s plan, which surfaced the day after Trump privately approved Lindsey Graham’s push for new sanctions—fueling accusations of an influence operation to torpedo sanctions—while on December 7 Trump claimed full Russian agreement despite Yuri Ushakov having voiced a “critical, even negative” view days earlier.
Militarily, Russia has had no major breakthrough in years but a bloody surge is accelerating; Pokrovsk held out for 16 months yet is now slipping, and reinforcements on its northern edge reportedly came at the cost of other fronts, with commanders warning that if Siversk falls evacuation routes open and panic follows. Politically, an anti-corruption probe on November 28 forced Andriy Yermak out, and 12 days later no successor had been named; three contenders were circulating and on December 9 Zelensky even floated abolishing the presidential office.
Source: Ukraine struggles to cope with America’s destructive peace plans
Subtitle: The latest manoeuvres by Donald Trump are familiar
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 07:16 上午 | Kyiv