在过去二十年里，中国反复通过贸易和旅游限制来实施外交惩罚，把制裁目标从加拿大、韩国等国转向在台湾问题上发表言论的日本。一个数据库记录了自2008年以来近100起“武器化贸易”事件，其中大约40%的案例是中国发起的。

具体争端往往源于象征性政治举动：2000年代初与达赖喇嘛的会晤、2010年将诺贝尔和平奖授予一名中国维权人士、2012年与菲律宾在南海的冲突、2016年韩国部署美制反导系统、2018年加拿大拘押华为高管以及2021年立陶宛允许台湾在代表处名称中使用“台湾”。尽管这些惩罚很少迫使对方彻底撤回政策，但它们通过让各国调整行为、避免加入不断扩大的“惩罚名单”，形成了持久的威慑。

中国通过锁定日本海产品、菲律宾香蕉、加拿大油菜籽或团队旅游等狭窄行业，并以从其他国家进口替代部分供应，将直接经济成本降到最低。更大的影响在政治层面：尽管韩国、加拿大、澳大利亚等国对中国的好感度大幅下降，但北京判断，从西藏到台湾划出清晰红线并树立“严重后果”名声的长期收益，胜过声誉受损和偶尔失去投资或游客的代价。

Over the past two decades, China has repeatedly used trade and tourism restrictions as diplomatic punishment, shifting targets from countries like Canada and South Korea to Japan after comments on Taiwan. A database records nearly 100 cases of “weaponised trade” since 2008, with China acting as the aggressor in roughly 40% of incidents.

Specific disputes have followed symbolic political moves: meetings with the Dalai Lama in the early 2000s, the 2010 Nobel peace prize for a Chinese activist, South China Sea clashes with the Philippines in 2012, South Korea’s 2016 missile-defence deployment, Canada’s 2018 detention of a Huawei executive, and Lithuania’s 2021 decision to let Taiwan use its own name. Although these punishments rarely force outright policy reversals, they create a persistent deterrent as governments adjust behavior to avoid joining the growing list of offenders.

China minimizes direct economic costs by targeting narrow sectors, such as Japanese seafood, Philippine bananas, Canadian canola or group tourism, often replacing imports from one country with supplies from another. The larger impact is political: despite sharp drops in China’s favorability in places like South Korea, Canada, Australia and others, Beijing judges that the long-term payoff—clear red lines on issues from Tibet to Taiwan and a reputation for serious repercussions—outweighs reputational damage and occasional lost investment or visitors.

Source: China knows how to punish countries that offend it

Subtitle: It is skilful in the dark arts of economic leverage

Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 06:00 上午