过去一年朝韩军事摩擦大幅上升，包括多次边境越界与本月的弹道导弹试射，显示平壤在加强挑衅。两韩自1950–53年战争后技术上持续处于超过70年的战争状态。去年金正恩首次正式将韩国定义为“敌对国家”，并被估计拥有约50枚核弹头，部分可能具备打击美国本土的射程。美军目前在韩驻军超过28,500人，使任何误判都可能引发美中等大国卷入的区域冲突。韩国民意也显著转向强硬，近期一项民调显示76%支持快速获取核武能力，反映对美国“核保护伞”可信度的信心下滑。

平壤自信增强源于其新结成的地缘政治支撑结构。金正恩已与俄罗斯建立相互防御条约，并向俄乌战场派兵，同时深化与主要贸易伙伴中国的合作。2025年9月在北京阅兵式上与普京、习近平同台释放反西方合轴信号。外部支持削弱制裁效果，使金正恩更肆无忌惮扩军、推动核力量现代化，并强化其对南韩“主导而非统一”的战略意图。

韩国总统李在明希望通过缓和措施管理风险，包括暂停扩音器宣传、建议恢复热线，并寻求谈判。但单靠和解被认为不足以遏制北方威胁。建议包括加速韩国防务现代化、加强与日本协调、扩大网络情报能力。同时，特朗普访韩后同意允许韩国发展核动力攻击潜艇，理论上可能增强其核材料生产潜力，引发平壤指责“引爆全球军备竞赛”。在更具侵略性的北韩与重组的国际阵营背景下，首要目标不是追求不现实的和平，而是避免因误判引发战争。

Over the past year, inter-Korean military frictions have risen sharply, including repeated border incursions and a ballistic missile test earlier this month, underscoring heightened tensions. The two Koreas have remained technically at war for more than 70 years since 1950–53. Last year Kim Jong Un formally designated the South a “hostile state,” and he is estimated to possess roughly 50 nuclear warheads, some believed capable of reaching the continental US. More than 28,500 US troops are stationed in South Korea, making any miscalculation a potential trigger for great-power involvement. Public opinion in the South has shifted markedly: a recent poll showed 76% support quickly acquiring nuclear weapons, reflecting eroding confidence in the US nuclear umbrella.

Pyongyang’s growing confidence stems from strengthened geopolitical backing. Kim has signed a mutual-defense treaty with Russia, sent troops to support Russian forces in Ukraine, and deepened cooperation with China. His joint appearance with Putin and Xi at a Beijing military parade in 2025 signaled an emerging anti-Western axis. These partnerships blunt sanctions and embolden Kim to expand nuclear development, modernize the military, and pursue strategic dominance over the South rather than peaceful unification.

President Lee Jae Myung seeks risk management through conciliatory measures, including halting loudspeaker broadcasts, proposing hotline restoration, and offering talks. But reconciliation alone is viewed as insufficient. Recommended steps include accelerating defense modernization, enhancing coordination with Japan, and expanding cyber-intelligence capabilities. Trump’s recent approval for Seoul to develop nuclear-powered attack submarines could increase fissile-material potential, drawing Pyongyang’s warnings of a global arms race. With a more aggressive North Korea and shifting alliances, the priority is not chasing illusory peace but preventing conflict triggered by miscalculation.