这篇评论认为当代全球秩序的崩坏更多源于一连串领导人的战略愚行，而非“无法避免的”战争：普京对乌克兰的入侵已进入第五年，尽管当初声称很快结束；加沙危机则始于2023 年10月7 日哈马斯的冒险性行动。 评论指出，哈马斯试图以极端暴力逼迫以色列过度反应，结果本国平民承担了最高代价，而纳夫塔尼亚胡政府以封锁与武力“全面平定”加沙为目标，既未实现和平，也严重削弱了以色列的国际信誉。
文中把伊朗视为下一次警告：其政权认为已接近组装核武所需的全部关键元素，但未建立有效威慑装置，说明其“绝对安全”假设站不住脚。 文章接着将特朗普描绘为放大自我伤害的决策者：从声称要“收买/夺取”格陵兰到在海湾开战；若美以联盟未能迫使伊朗屈从，一个愤怒、掌控霍尔木兹海峡并引发中东军备竞赛的伊朗情境将可能出现。
作者借助芭芭拉·塔奇曼1984年的《愚蠢的行进》区分“个人性格错误”与持续跨越任期的制度性错误，后者才是深层灾难；18世纪英国失去美洲殖民地就被描绘为傲慢与无知所致，即便当时反对者警告殖民地价值远超税收。 历史例子还包括蒙特祖马在一座30万人的城邦面前被几百名西班牙士兵击败，以及美国越南战争把三任总统都卷入；若今日错误仅是个人化，可能因选举缓解，但若被更大政党结构和追随者放大，就会演变成更难逆转的制度性衰败。
The essay argues that contemporary global instability is driven less by unavoidable conflict than by leaders’ chains of strategic folly, as seen in Putin’s Ukraine war now in its fifth year after promises of a quick end and the Gaza crisis triggered by Hamas’s gamble on 2023-10-07. It argues Hamas sought to provoke Israeli overreach through extreme violence, while Palestinian civilians paid the heaviest price, and Netanyahu’s stated goal of fully pacifying Gaza by siege and force has produced neither peace nor stable international standing for Israel.
The piece presents Iran as a cautionary case: the regime believes it has assembled nearly all critical components for a nuclear weapon but lacks a credible deterrent architecture, undermining its own security assumptions. It then portrays Trump as escalating self-harm—from Greenland threats to launching war in the Gulf—warning that if U.S.-Israeli strategy does not force a compliant Iran, the likely outcome could be an emboldened Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and a regional arms race.
Using Barbara Tuchman’s 1984 *The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam*, the argument separates personality-driven errors from system-level errors that outlast any single officeholder, citing 18th-century Britain’s loss of the American colonies despite warnings that colonials were worth more than collected taxes. It adds historical repeats such as Montezuma’s passive collapse before only a few hundred Spaniards despite ruling over a 300,000-person city, and Vietnam entangling three successive U.S. presidents, warning that if Trumpian faults remain isolated they may fade, but if enabled by a wider governing coalition they become harder to reverse.
Source: America must hope Donald Trump is not a new Caligula
Subtitle: In the annals of rulers committing acts of folly, Roman decadence stands out
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午