11月30日，特朗普总统发出信号称即将选定下一任美联储主席，在博彩市场上资金押注于其顾问凯文·哈塞特，而他正推动更快、更大幅度的降息。 他已经将斯蒂芬·米兰暂时安插进美联储理事会，并试图罢免理事丽莎·库克，此案预计一月份由最高法院审理，同时他以多种方式向这一机构施压，冒着削弱其抗通胀独立性的风险。

2017年，他声称“非常保守”的估计是，特朗普的公司减税将把家庭平均年度收入提高4000美元，这一数字远高于其他机构的预测，也远高于迄今观测到的任何效应。 他的记录还包括在1999年预测道琼斯指数几乎将翻四倍，以及在2020年提出一个“立方”新冠模型，错误地暗示死亡人数将很快降至零，从而摧毁了他在定量判断方面的声誉。

相比之下，克里斯·沃勒自2009年以来一直在美联储体系内工作，并在2020年进入理事会后多次战胜主流预测，否定了2022年关于加息会导致失业激增的观点，并准确预见到7月出现的劳动力市场走弱。 尽管他现在在通胀依然远高于2%目标时主张降息，但他在经济疲弱的2010年代偏鸽派、在疫情后通胀抬头时转为偏鹰派的记录显示他始终依据数据行事，而市场很可能会以更低而非更高的借贷成本来回报这种技术官僚式的长期公信力。

I need to break down the situation regarding Trump’s decision on the next Fed chair. Betting markets seem to favor Kevin Hassett, which is interesting. Trump appears to be looking for faster rate cuts, and it seems he’s leaning towards appointing Miran to the board. It’s worth noting that Miran has previously voted in favor of significant cuts, which might align well with Trump’s goals. This context could influence future economic strategies.

I want to start by creating English paragraphs and approximating the word count before translating. My first attempt focuses on Trump, comparing Hassett and Waller, along with discussions about rate cuts and Fed independence. I think it’s important to mention timelines, like the November 30 announcement and upcoming events, including the Supreme Court in January. Here’s my first attempt at the paragraph about Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair and the surrounding context.

In my second paragraph, I'm going to highlight Hassett's numeric forecasting errors. I want to mention his 2017 claim that Trump's corporate tax cuts would raise average household income by $4,000, which was much higher than other estimates and hasn't been supported by data since. I can add a sentence about his forecasting history, like the 1999 prediction about the Dow Jones and a 2020 model predicting a quick decline in COVID-19 deaths, which harmed his credibility in quantitative analysis.

Source: Chris Waller, not Kevin Hassett, should lead the Federal Reserve

Subtitle: President Trump should choose the technocrat over the partisan

Dateline: 12月 04, 2025 11:53 上午