美国股市显示出进入狂热阶段的迹象，这在SpaceX上市后的四个交易日内估值飙升超过40%并达到2.5万亿美元中得以体现，尽管该公司去年亏损了50亿美元。投资者将最初的1.8万亿美元估值（超过其年收入的90倍）合理化，是基于银行家的预测，即到2030年其AI部门的销售额将增长100倍，达到3220亿美元。

这种投机热情在期权市场中进一步显现，2025年的整体交易量较2020年几乎翻了一番。在2021年至2025年期间，标普500指数当天到期的超短期期权交易量激增了3.7倍，将衍生品市场变成了一个投机赌场。

因此，科技股权重叠的纳斯达克指数的看涨期权平均价格已上涨至与看跌期权相当，这表明对股价上涨的投机性押注目前已与机构投资者对下行崩盘保护的需求相匹配。

American stock markets show signs of entering a manic phase, highlighted by SpaceX's listing valuation soaring by over 40% within four trading days to reach $2.5 trillion, despite the firm losing $5 billion last year. Investors justified the initial $1.8 trillion valuation—which exceeded 90 times its annual revenue—based on bankers' projections that its AI arm would grow sales 100-fold to $322 billion by 2030.

This speculative enthusiasm is further evident in the options market, where overall trading volumes in 2025 nearly doubled compared to 2020. Trading in ultra-short same-day expiry options on the S&P 500 surged by 3.7 times between 2021 and 2025, transforming the derivatives market into a speculative casino.

Consequently, the average price of call options on the tech-heavy NASDAQ index has risen to match that of put options, indicating that speculative bets on rising stock prices are currently matching the demand for downside crash protection from institutional investors.

Source: America’s bull market has entered its manic phase

Subtitle: Options markets show optimism is giving way to euphoria

Dateline: 6月 18, 2026 03:46 上午