结束美伊战争的谅解备忘录旨在30天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，释放全球15-20%的石油和液化天然气供应，并将布伦特原油从5月份超过110美元的峰值推低至每桶80美元以下。然而，清除海上水雷可能需要长达六周的时间，从而推迟118辆闲置油轮的撤离，并使入境船只的返回时间推迟四到五个月。

海湾地区的石油产量预计将逐步恢复，到7月中旬达到2月份水平的30-50%，到年底达到80-90%，这可能会将布伦特原油价格推低至每桶75美元左右。与此同时，摩根士丹利预测第三季度日均供应缺口为340万桶，使全球库存以每日210万桶的速度消耗，并在该季度将布伦特平均价格维持在90美元。

尽管国际能源署预计明年市场将出现过剩，但补充枯竭的战略储备到2027年可能会为全球需求增加每日200万桶，而持续的地缘政治风险可能会使每桶高达10美元的永久溢价持续存在。

A memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran war aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, unlocking 15-20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply and driving Brent crude below $80 a barrel from its May peak of over $110. However, clearing naval mines could take up to six weeks, delay the exit of 118 idling tankers, and delay the return of inbound ships for four to five months.

Gulf oil production is projected to recover gradually, reaching 30-50% of February levels by mid-July and 80-90% by the end of the year, potentially lowering Brent prices toward $75 a barrel. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley forecasts a third-quarter supply deficit of 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d), draining global inventories at 2.1 million b/d and keeping average Brent prices at $90 during the quarter.

Although the International Energy Agency anticipates a market glut next year, replenishing depleted strategic reserves could add 2 million b/d to global demand by 2027, while ongoing geopolitical risks could sustain a permanent premium of up to $10 per barrel.

Source: Deal or no deal, oil prices will stay volatile for months

Subtitle: The pre-war days of $60 crude are not coming back soo

Dateline: 6月 18, 2026 03:17 上午