在拜登总统任期初期，他在前100天内颁布了自罗斯福以来最多的重大行政命令，并获得国会批准用于危机应对的资金数量超过罗斯福时代。他为2亿美国人分发了新冠疫苗，支持率高达59%。尽管在阿富汗撤军后支持率转为净负且未恢复，但拜登依旧推动工业政策、气候与种族平等等改革。即便民主党在国会仅占微弱优势，中期选举中未受“红色浪潮”冲击也帮助他稳住党内地位。

然而，民意对美国总统的态度常常在任期内剧变。拜登民调自59%高点坠至37%，用了两年多时间后略有回升；而特朗普在七月已下探至同样低谷，后回升至41%。特朗普在沟通和强硬施政上比拜登更激进，但他也重复了通胀等问题上的误判。尽管特朗普宣称关税不引发通胀、经济创纪录，但最新民意调查显示，他在通胀和物价问题上的净支持率为-33个百分点。

特朗普移民政策也表现出与拜登类似的极端化倾向。拜登上任初期放宽前任限制后两年忽视边境危机；特朗普则大力推动大规模驱逐，但其策略愈发严厉导致民众不满。此外，特朗普家族利用总统身份获利的规模甚至超越拜登家族。尽管特朗普仍有机会修正政策路线，更可能的是他会寻求培育忠实继任者，而历史将继续由新的继任者书写。

In the early days of Joe Biden’s presidency, he issued more major executive actions in his first 100 days than any president since Roosevelt and secured more congressional funding for emergency response than in Roosevelt’s time. He distributed covid vaccines to 200 million Americans, and his approval rating peaked at 59%. Even after public approval turned negative following the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden continued to promote reforms on industrial policy, climate, and racial equality. Despite holding only the slimmest margin in Congress, the absence of a “red wave” in the midterms helped him maintain influence within the Democratic Party.

However, public perception of American presidents often shifts sharply over their terms. Biden’s polling dropped from 59% to 37% over more than two years, before recovering slightly; Trump reached this same low by July, then rose to 41%. Trump has been more aggressive in communication and policy than Biden, but he has repeated similar errors around inflation. While Trump insists tariffs do not cause inflation and claims record economic performance, recent polls show his net approval on inflation and prices at -33 points.

Trump’s immigration policy also mirrors Biden's mistakes in extremism. After Biden relaxed Trump-era restrictions and ignored the border for two years, Trump has championed mass deportations, but increasingly harsh tactics are unpopular with the public. Additionally, the Trump family’s open monetization of the presidency now rivals or surpasses that of Biden’s family. While Trump still has time to alter his course, it is more likely he will attempt to install a loyal successor, as future leaders will inevitably seek to shape their own narratives.