2022年香港因严格的新冠清零政策经历大规模外籍人士外流。从2020年初到2022年外流高峰，约200,000人离开香港，占人口约2.5%。这一变化导致国际学校入学人数下降、租赁市场下跌，并迫使政府随后推出吸引海外人才和恢复金融市场的政策。该事件显示，当流动性和稳定性下降时，全球金融中心对国际人才和资本的吸引力可能迅速减弱。

2020年以来，迪拜成为主要受益者之一。超过400,000人迁入，使城市人口超过380万。作为全球金融与商业枢纽，迪拜具有地理优势：全球约三分之二人口可在8小时航程内到达。然而2026年美国与以色列对伊朗战争扩大后，伊朗导弹和无人机袭击波及海湾地区，一些企业开始通过沙特和阿曼撤离员工，多国政府组织撤侨航班，私人飞机活动明显增加。

迪拜的结构性风险在于人口高度依赖外籍人士，约90%居民为外国人。虽然目前尚未出现大规模撤离迹象，但战争已削弱该城市长期塑造的稳定形象。历史经验表明，金融中心地位会随着地缘政治变化而转移，例如澳门在16世纪、香港在19世纪、上海在20世纪初的兴衰循环。全球金融中心通常需要多年建立，但当安全、开放性或连通性受到破坏时，人才和资本也可能在较短时间内迅速转移。

In 2022 Hong Kong experienced a major expatriate outflow during strict Covid restrictions. From early 2020 through the peak of departures in 2022, roughly 200,000 people left the city, about 2.5% of its population. The shift caused declines in international school enrollment and rental markets and prompted authorities to launch campaigns to attract overseas talent and revive financial activity. The episode demonstrated how quickly global financial centers can lose internationally mobile professionals and capital when stability and mobility deteriorate.

Since 2020 Dubai has been one of the main beneficiaries. More than 400,000 people have moved to the city, pushing its population above 3.8 million. Dubai’s appeal partly stems from geography, with about two-thirds of the world’s population living within an eight-hour flight. However, the 2026 US-Israeli war with Iran has introduced new uncertainty as Iranian missiles and drones have targeted locations across the Gulf. Some companies have begun evacuating employees through Saudi Arabia and Oman, governments have organized repatriation flights, and private jet activity has surged.

Dubai’s structural vulnerability lies in its reliance on foreign residents, who make up about 90% of the population. Although there is currently little evidence of a mass departure, the conflict has weakened the city’s long-standing image of stability. Historical patterns show that financial centers can shift with geopolitical change, as Macau dominated trade in the 1500s, Hong Kong rose in the 1800s, and Shanghai briefly surpassed it in the early 1900s. Building such hubs takes decades, but erosion of security, openness, or connectivity can cause talent and capital to relocate relatively quickly.