日本经济在滞胀风险下持续恶化：最新数据显示GDP萎缩1.8%，此前7–9月季度亦收缩近2%，而平均工资长期落后于约3%的通胀率，使实际收入下降。日元逼近160兑1美元，进口通胀加剧；同时政府推出21.3万亿日元刺激方案并否定进一步加息，使通胀压力在2026年可能继续升高。银行体系脆弱性凸显，债务占GDP比率接近260%，即便基准利率升至5%亦可能使债务成本失控，而目前10年与20年国债的例行拍卖已出现承销困难。

股市表现与民生形成尖锐对比。Nikkei 225在5万点附近刷新纪录，但实际收入下降的普通家庭并未感受到“Takaichinomics”带来的复苏。2025年选举中执政党失去两院多数的重要民意原因即为生活成本攀升。韩国与中国的摩擦进一步损害外需与旅游收入，中国已限制赴日游客并持续海产品禁令。外部因素叠加特朗普关税推升全球大宗商品价格，使滞胀风险上升。

政策结构性短板显著。持续依赖货币和财政宽松而忽视提高生产率的供给侧改革，将使工资上升直接转化为通胀。日本生产率长期处于OECD后半区，而经济学家估计至少需要每年1%的效率提升才能遏制工资推动型通胀。若不改革劳动力制度、减少官僚成本、提升创新能力并扩大女性就业，Takaichi的Abenomics复刻版难以在12个月内扭转12年未能解决的结构性失衡。若滞胀恶化，未来一年内日本可能再度更换领导人。

Japan faces deepening stagflation as GDP has contracted 1.8% and the July–September quarter shrank nearly 2%, while wages continue to trail inflation of around 3%, eroding real incomes. The yen is nearing 160 per dollar, amplifying imported inflation, and a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus plus rejection of further rate hikes risks stronger price pressure in 2026. With a debt-to-GDP ratio near 260%, even a 5% policy rate could destabilize public finances; routine auctions of 10- and 20-year JGBs already struggle for demand.

Markets diverge sharply from household conditions. The Nikkei 225 hovers near a record 50,000, but households suffering declining real incomes feel no benefit from “Takaichinomics.” Rising living costs were a key driver of the ruling party’s loss of control of both chambers. Tensions with China hurt tourism and exports, as Beijing discourages travel and maintains seafood bans. Combined with Trump-era tariffs lifting global commodity prices, stagflation pressures intensify.

Structural policy weaknesses remain acute. Continued monetary and fiscal easing without productivity-enhancing supply-side reform means wage hikes risk feeding inflation. Japan’s productivity sits in the lower half of OECD members; economists estimate a 1% annual efficiency gain is the minimum to counter wage-push inflation. Without labor reform, bureaucracy reduction, innovation revival, and expanded female participation, a replay of Abenomics is unlikely to fix problems that went unresolved for 12 years. If stagflation worsens, Japan may again replace its leader within a year, as the country will only be “back” when the other 99% feel genuine improvement.