韩国股市在2025年暴涨61%，从年初约2,400点升至逼近4,000点，创下25年来最强涨幅，并成为全球表现最佳主要指数。然而上涨高度集中，接近一半涨幅由三星电子与SK海力士贡献，显示结构风险。散户融资余额在11月维持约26万亿韩元（约170亿美元），较六个月前增加约50%，而海外资金在11月重新转为净卖出，使当月可能成为全年最大外资流出期之一。近期全球抛售导致KOSPI单日近4%下跌，反映AI估值泡沫升温带来的波动。

政府对“Kospi 5,000”目标的政治推动叠加全球AI与半导体超级周期，引发市场加速上行。摩根大通将5,000点视为基准情境，花旗预测2026年底可达5,500点。即便如此，三星、海力士前瞻市盈率仍仅约10倍与7倍，低于区域科技股16倍与英伟达27倍，吸引部分资金认为“韩国折价”若消失，市场或能翻倍甚至三倍。为减少房地产泡沫并引导资金入市，韩国金融监管高层甚至出售其江南公寓并购入ETF。

持续上涨的可持续性取决于治理改革落实。商法修订通过后，市场等待降低股息税、强制注销库藏股等议案进展，而三星仍未公布自身的“Value Up”计划，造成投资者质疑执行力度。若企业未能显著提升股东回报，过度依赖AI主题与散户杠杆的行情难以稳固。机构预期，在当前节奏下KOSPI短期可能触及5,000点，但若缺乏改革支持，将随即回落。

South Korean stocks have surged 61% in 2025, rising from roughly 2,400 to near 4,000 and marking the strongest gain in 25 years, making the Kospi the world’s best-performing major benchmark. Yet the rally is highly concentrated, with nearly half of the advance driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Retail margin balances hovered around 26 trillion won (≈$17 billion) in November, up about 50% in six months, while foreign investors returned to net selling, putting November on track to be one of the largest outflow months this year. A near-4% drop on Friday amid a global rout highlighted volatility tied to overheated AI valuations.

The government’s political push for “Kospi 5,000,” combined with a global AI and semiconductor supercycle, accelerated gains. JPMorgan now sees 5,000 as a base case, while Citigroup forecasts 5,500 by the end of 2026. Despite the jump, Samsung and Hynix trade at roughly 10× and 7× forward earnings versus 16× for regional tech and 27× for Nvidia, fueling optimism that removing the “Korea discount” could potentially double or triple the market. Officials are also steering capital away from real estate, with a senior financial regulator selling a Gangnam apartment to buy ETFs.

Sustainability depends on governance reform enforcement. After amendments to the Commercial Act, investors await progress on dividend-tax cuts and mandatory treasury-share cancellations. Samsung has yet to announce its own “Value Up” plan, raising concerns over follow-through. Without stronger shareholder-return policies, a rally reliant on AI enthusiasm and retail leverage may prove fragile. Analysts note the Kospi could hit 5,000 at the current pace, but without structural reform, it is likely to fall back.