11年前，叙利亚东北部哈萨卡的库尔德人威拉特·哈利勒携妻女前往德国，在施博格立足、与妻子合营餐馆，并使他四个孩子（其中一人出生于德国）在当地学校适应生活，这体现了大量叙利亚难民长期融入的现实。德国在叙利亚内战后曾接纳超过100万叙利亚人，而阿萨德于2024年12月被罢免后，默茨公开提出三年内让约80%的在德叙利亚人返回祖国。

德国目前约有94万叙利亚人，其中约64万持有某种法律保护身份，另有约6.5万待决庇护申请在阿萨德倒台后被暂缓审理。由于撤销保护需按个人、并且通常要以叙利亚局势持续改善为条件，加上该国仍频繁发生宗派冲突且约90%人口处于贫困之中，若叠加行政上诉和法院程序，进行大规模身份取消几乎不可行，即便是刑事犯罪者遣返也已十分困难。

自愿回流总体上仍以较小基数起步且持续缓慢，主要受叙利亚国内安全和生计环境影响；不过“循环往返”式回流或“永久回国”并非不可能。约有25万叙利亚人在德国入籍，更多人可能随后入籍；尽管目前略高于一半未就业，2025年初步数据显示2015年到德工作年龄叙利亚人中有65%有雇佣关系、5%自雇，接近德国总体77%的就业率，使得处于老龄化和劳动力短缺背景下的德国更不可能大规模鼓励其离开。

Eleven years ago, Syrian Kurd Welat Khalil fled Hasaka with his wife and children to Germany, settled in Schönberg, ran a restaurant with his family, and now has four children—including one born in Germany—thriving in school, illustrating the long-term integration seen among many refugees. Germany had taken in over 1 million Syrians after the civil war, and after Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December 2024, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said publicly that 80% of Syrians in Germany should return within three years.

Germany has about 940,000 Syrians living there, roughly 640,000 with some form of legal protection and another 65,000 whose asylum cases were frozen after Assad’s fall. Protections are meant to be temporary but are revoked only individually and only when officials judge conditions in Syria to have improved, and with periodic sectarian violence and 90% poverty there, plus appeals and court proceedings, mass revocation is not realistic; deporting even convicted offenders has already been difficult.

Voluntary returns appear to be rising from a small base and are driven mainly by conditions in Syria rather than in host countries, while circular migration may still be possible for some, including new citizens. About 250,000 Syrians have recently naturalized and many more likely will, and though slightly more than half are currently not in work, preliminary 2025 figures show 65% of working-age Syrians who arrived in 2015 employed and 5% self-employed, close to Germany’s overall 77%, making large-scale encouragement of departure unlikely to align with Germany’s ageing labor-short economy.

Source: Most Syrians in Germany are there to stay

Subtitle: Sending back masses of immigrants would be foolish and impossible

Dateline: 4月 09, 2026 03:39 上午 | BERLIN