Home Depot 是美国住房市场的晴雨表：2007 年可比销售曾大幅下滑，而在新冠疫情后的繁荣期，收入又随之飙升。此后住房热潮转为停滞，2022 年和 2023 年的年度交易分别下降 20% 和 30%，过去两年成屋销售处于 30 年来最低水平。

这使 DIY 需求走弱：按汇率因素调整后，Home Depot 最新财季的美国年度销售已连续三年下滑或持平，去年客户交易量比 2021 年峰值低 9%。公司预计 2026 年可比销售持平，最好也只有 2% 增长，而股价已较去年峰值下跌 25%。

高利率是核心拖累之一：30 年期新房贷平均利率已升至接近 6.5%，而疫情时期 3% 或更低的固定利率让大量房主不愿出售；到 2025 年第三季度，仍有一半以上未偿房贷利率在 4% 或以下。尽管小件商品销售尚可，厨房和浴室等大型翻新项目并未启动，因此 Home Depot 正把重心转向承包商，这类客户如今贡献了其一半收入，且公司已在近几年投入逾 300 亿美元收购批发分销商。

Home Depot is a barometer of America’s housing market: comparable sales fell sharply in 2007, then revenues surged during the post-covid boom. Since then, the housing frenzy has stalled, with annual transactions down 20% in 2022 and 30% in 2023, and existing-home sales over the past two years at a 30-year low.

That has weakened DIY demand: adjusted for currency effects, Home Depot’s US annual sales have been falling or flat for three years, and customer transactions last year were 9% below the 2021 peak. The company expects comparable sales to be unchanged in 2026, with at best 2% growth, while its share price has dropped 25% from last year’s peak.

High mortgage rates are a key drag: the average rate on a new 30-year mortgage is now nearly 6.5%, while pandemic-era fixed rates of 3% or less keep many homeowners from selling; more than half of outstanding mortgages still carried rates of 4% or less in the third quarter of 2025. Small items are still selling, but large renovation projects are not starting, so Home Depot is shifting toward builders, who now account for half of revenue, after spending more than $30bn on wholesale distributors in recent years.

Source: Economics lessons from Home Depot

Subtitle: What the world’s biggest DIY store says about American housing

Dateline: 5月 21, 2026 03:18 上午