HSBC Holdings Plc 估算：MiniMax 约 65% 股份由基石投资者与员工共同持有且在 7 月 8 日前不可交易；高管锁定期通常为 6 个月，但其股份将延至 2027 年 1 月才到期。Zhipu 的基石投资者持有约 6% 将于 7 月 7 日解禁，另有约 40% 由员工等持有，预计自明年 1 月起陆续释出；解禁可能增加供给、压抑估值，并让看空观点更易表达。
两股近期再度上涨，市场押注 Jensen Huang 随 President Donald Trump 访京或有助扩大 Nvidia Corp. 先进晶片供应；但估值已显著拉伸：MiniMax 与 Zhipu 的市销率（P/S）分别略高于 600 倍与 410 倍，而 Hang Seng Tech Index 仅约 1.2 倍。S3 Partners 数据显示，年化做空借券成本约为股价的 39% 与 27%，远高于一般高流动性股票的约 0.25%；且缺乏期权、期货与看跌权证等工具（虽 JPMorgan Chase & Co. 与 Morgan Stanley 等自 4 月下旬起各发行至少 26 档认购权证），在 Xiaomi Corp.、Tencent Holdings Ltd. 等加剧竞争与潜在价格战、以及 StepFun、Moonshot AI、Baichuan 拟 IPO 的背景下，市场更需时间让价格在多空两端趋于均衡。
Short sellers targeting China’s hottest AI firms have struggled because so few shares are publicly tradable, but the scarcity premium may start to fade in July as lockups expire. MiniMax Group Inc. and Knowledge Atlas Technology Joint Stock Co. (Zhipu) have risen nearly 400% and 900% since their January listings, yet their free floats are only about 5% and 4%, making it difficult to borrow stock to short.
HSBC Holdings Plc estimates MiniMax has about 65% of shares jointly held by cornerstone IPO investors and employees that cannot trade until July 8; executive lockups extend to January 2027 (with a typical six-month period cited for such investors). For Zhipu, the cornerstone investors’ roughly 6% stake unlocks on July 7, and another ~40% held by employees and others is expected to be released from next January, potentially increasing supply, pressuring prices, and enabling more bearish positioning.
The stocks recently jumped again on speculation that Jensen Huang joining President Donald Trump’s Beijing trip could broaden access to Nvidia Corp.’s advanced chips, even as valuations look stretched: MiniMax and Zhipu trade at price-to-sales ratios just over 600× and 410× versus ~1.2× for the Hang Seng Tech Index. S3 Partners data put annualized short-borrow costs at about 39% and 27% of share value versus ~0.25% for typical liquid stocks, and bearish hedges are limited by scarce options/futures and a lack of put warrants (despite at least 26 call warrants per stock issued since late April by banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley); with competition rising from Xiaomi Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd., IPO plans by StepFun, Moonshot AI, and Baichuan, and ongoing losses expected for at least this and next year, the market may need time to reach a two-sided equilibrium.