Iran透过区域中介者表示,停火的前提是美国必须保证,美国与Israel未来都不会再攻击Iran。这项要求反映出Tehran对战后再次遭受Israel打击的高度忧虑,但目前仍不清楚美国是否愿意作出这种承诺,也不清楚美国能否要求Israel同样遵守。Iran总统Masoud Pezeshkian在周三晚间公开表示,结束战争的唯一方式是承认Iran的合法权利、支付赔偿,并提供防止未来侵略的坚定国际保证。
这场美国与Israel对Iran的战争自2026年2月28日开始,至今几乎没有即将降级的迹象。虽然Donald Trump表示,Iran军力已被大幅削弱,因此战事可能很快结束,但三方公开立场都显示,他们准备至少再战数周。Iran仍持续向Israel以及Saudi Arabia、United Arab Emirates、Qatar和Bahrain发射飞弹与无人机;同时,对船只的打击实际上已使Hormuz海峡关闭,而全球石油与天然气流量的1/5经由此处通行,从而加剧能源市场动荡。
区域国家正加紧外交接触,以遏制冲突外溢。Saudi Arabia上周强化了与Iran的直接沟通,其他Gulf国家也因本国经济与金融市场受创,而同时试图接触Iran与美国。Oman的Sultan Haitham bin Tariq在周三与Masoud Pezeshkian通话,这是冲突爆发以来双方首次通话,时间点紧接在无人机击中Oman南部Salalah港燃料槽之后。与此同时,美国与Israel的战争目标已从早期暗示的政权更替,转向较有限的目标,例如摧毁Iran的飞弹计划与海军。
Iran told regional intermediaries that a ceasefire depends on a US guarantee that neither Washington nor Israel will strike Iran again in the future. The demand shows Tehran's strong concern about a renewed Israeli attack after the war, but it remains unclear whether the US is willing to make such a pledge or can compel Israel to do the same. Late Wednesday, President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only path to ending the war is recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.
The US-Israel war with Iran began on February 28, 2026 and shows little sign of imminent de-escalation. Although Donald Trump said Iran's military has been heavily degraded and the conflict could end soon, the public positions of all three sides indicate readiness to keep fighting for at least several more weeks. Iran continues to launch missiles and drones toward Israel and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain; meanwhile, its attacks on shipping have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 1/5 of global oil and natural gas flows, intensifying turmoil in energy markets.
Regional states are increasing diplomatic engagement to contain spillover from the war. Saudi Arabia intensified direct contacts with Iran last week, while other Gulf states are also trying to speak with both Iran and the US because their economies and financial markets are being hit. Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq spoke with Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday in their first call since the conflict began, shortly after drones struck fuel tanks at the port of Salalah in southern Oman. At the same time, US and Israeli war aims appear to have shifted from early suggestions of regime change toward narrower objectives such as destroying Iran's missile program and navy.