其他进一步的顾虑来自伊朗战争带来的油价冲击风险与加息压力。 中央银行官员与风险监管者担心供应冲击可能推动全球经济出现停滞性通胀，并迫使政策上调借款成本。 英国央行指出伊朗冲突可能恶化主权债务前景、推高利率并增加财政压力；欧洲风险管理局（ESRB）警告，若冲突持续，或引发急剧且无序的资产价格修正与融资条件收紧。 ESRB同时指出欧盟仍有韧性，但投资基金部门的脆弱性可能透过被迫抛售资产、流动性压力与顺势行为放大市场紧张。 这与现已1.8tn美元的private credit市场相关，部分大型美国基金因投资者大规模赎回而缩减可提款额，反映出对高杠杆借款损失的担忧。
JPMorgan Chase首席执行长Jamie Dimon在致股东信中警告，一旦进入信用周期，杠杆贷款损失将高于既有环境预期，因为整体信用标准都在不同程度上放松。 对此，Powell在哈佛被问及时表示，该部门目前未见与银行体系形成传染效应的连接；他认为目前只是市场修正，会有人亏损，但尚不足以演变为系统性事件。 LSE金融学教授Jón Danielsson则认为，由于监管者已持续监视，private credit风险或许较受控制。 相反，他提醒下一个重大威胁可能是AI：当银行在财政管理与流动性管理中加速导入AI以「即时评估冲击」与「迅速反应」时，危机可能变得更快发生，而央行与监管机构仍可能因反应流程较慢而显得滞后。
In a March speech at Harvard, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked what could trigger another financial-system shock. He pointed first to rising U.S. public debt: by March it stood at $39tn, or 125% of GDP, up from about 60% in 2007, driven by persistent deficits, tax cuts, and higher spending. Powell said the danger lies less in the absolute stock than in debt growing substantially faster than economic output. After Donald Trump proposed raising the defense budget by 50% to $1.5tn by 2027, concern increased that investors may eventually question the safe-haven status of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.
Other risks remain tied to Iran: an oil supply shock could push rates higher, weaken growth, and intensify inflation. The Bank of England said the conflict could worsen global sovereign-debt conditions by lifting rates and fiscal pressure, while the European Systemic Risk Board said a prolonged conflict could trigger sharp, disorderly price corrections and tighter financing conditions. It also noted vulnerabilities in the investment-fund sector, where forced asset sales, liquidity strain, and procyclical behavior can amplify stress. That context intersects with a $1.8tn private-credit market, where some major U.S. funds have restricted withdrawals as redemption requests rise due to fears of rising loan losses.
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase said in his shareholder letter that when a credit cycle arrives, leveraged-lending losses are likely to be higher than expected because credit standards are weakening across sectors. Yet Powell downplayed immediate systemic danger from private credit, saying no major banking-system contagion channels are visible now and the current phase looks like a correction with localized losses. LSE finance professor Jón Danielsson sees fewer immediate risks from private credit because it has long been on regulators’ radar. He warned instead that widespread AI use in banks—especially for treasury and liquidity management—could make crises unfold more quickly while central banks and supervisors still rely on slower, person-to-person response processes.