欧洲与英国的经济目前极为脆弱，欧元区国内生产毛额正在萎缩，英国的就业人口也在下降。此时在欧洲强行升息极易将其经济推入衰退，使得欧洲面临严重的经济停滞与失衡风险。
相较之下，美国经济表现依然稳健，强劲的劳动力市场增加了通膨长期化的风险，因此美联储本应考虑升息。然而，决策者在做出下一步动作前，应采取观望态度以评估实质经济影响，避免造成大西洋两岸的 stagflation 局面。
Global central bankers seem to have the direction of policy rates mixed up. Financial market data suggests that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are likely to continue raising rates to combat inflation, while the Federal Reserve, which faces a strong economy and potential inflationary pressures, is the least likely to tighten policy.
The economies of Europe and the UK are currently highly vulnerable, with the eurozone's GDP contracting and the UK's employment numbers declining. Raising policy rates in Europe at this time could easily push their economies into a recession, exposing the continent to severe stagflation risks.
In contrast, the US economy remains solid, and the strong labor market increases the risk of entrenched inflation, meaning the Federal Reserve should be considering rate hikes. However, central bankers should adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the real economic impact before making their next policy moves.