中国在过去约50年中实现了从普遍贫困到巨大财富积累的转变。1978年平均家庭资产仅约1,500美元(按今日价值),如今约为170,000美元,实际增长约100倍。然而财富分配极不均衡:最富有的10%人口拥有接近70%的私人财富,比例与美国相近且高于多数发达经济体。富裕群体同时迅速老龄化,在2016年资产至少50亿元人民币(约7.2亿美元)的富豪中,60岁以上占23%,如今已升至49%,意味着大规模代际财富转移即将发生。
中国继承财富结构具有特殊人口和制度背景。大规模资产积累始于1990年代住房私有化和企业繁荣时期,这一时期产生了数百万百万富翁和数百名亿万富豪。由于长期实行独生子女政策,多数城市家庭的两位父母资产将集中传给单一继承人,从而放大财富集中效应。与此同时,经济增长放缓与房地产价格大幅下跌削弱了中产阶级主要资产价值,而超富裕群体因投资组合更分散受到的冲击较小,使财富差距进一步扩大。
财政政策几乎没有针对继承财富的再分配工具。中国既没有遗产税,也没有常态化房产税,资本利得税存在大量豁免,复杂的所得税制度削弱了收入调节功能。过去十年中,不包括社保的税收收入从GDP的18%下降到13%,约为同类经济体水平的四分之三。与此同时,青年失业率超过16%,社会调查显示悲观情绪上升。若不改革,代际财富转移可能巩固一个长期世袭富裕阶层,强化不平等并降低消费倾向,从而对经济增长和社会稳定构成长期风险。
Over roughly the past 50 years China has transformed from widespread poverty to massive wealth accumulation. In 1978 the average household held about $1,500 in assets in today’s money; today the figure is roughly $170,000, a real increase of about 100 times. Wealth distribution, however, is highly unequal: the richest 10% of the population control nearly 70% of private wealth, a share similar to the United States and higher than most advanced economies. The wealthy are also ageing rapidly; among individuals worth at least 5bn yuan ($720m), those aged over 60 rose from 23% in 2016 to 49% today, indicating a large imminent intergenerational wealth transfer.
China’s inheritance dynamics reflect distinctive demographic and institutional conditions. Large-scale asset accumulation began mainly in the 1990s after homeownership was allowed and business expansion produced millions of millionaires and hundreds of billionaires. Because most urban families followed the one-child policy, the assets of two parents will typically pass to a single heir, intensifying wealth concentration. At the same time, slower economic growth and steep declines in property prices have reduced the main asset of the middle class, while ultra-wealthy households with diversified portfolios have been less affected, widening wealth disparities.
Fiscal policy contains almost no tools to redistribute inherited wealth. China has neither an inheritance tax nor a recurring property tax, its capital-gains tax includes extensive exemptions, and a complex income-tax system limits redistribution. Over the past decade, tax revenue excluding social-security contributions fell from 18% to 13% of GDP, about three-quarters the level of peer economies. Meanwhile youth unemployment exceeds 16% and surveys show rising pessimism. Without reform, the coming wealth transfer could entrench a permanent hereditary elite, reinforce inequality, and depress consumption, posing long-term risks to economic growth and social stability.