在过去五年里，意大利、希腊和西班牙已把预算赤字降至与欧盟规则相符的水平，但法国例外：其在过去三年里赤字一直超过GDP的5%。法国甚至未能通过2026年预算，如今面临一场接一场的议会拉锯战，必须在本月底前通过预算。

政治瘫痪与财政僵局相互强化：马克龙总统任期仅剩15个月，在国内已成跛脚鸭，支持率不足20%，其中间派联盟在577席国民议会中仅占161席。自2023年把最低退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁的改革引发对立、到2024年提前立法选举削弱执政少数，再到总理任期屡屡仅维持约三个月、以及拟把赤字降至GDP的4.6%的预算遭否决并在2025预算于12月被延续到2026，数字显示治理失灵在累积。

在安全与竞争压力下需要更多国防与经济支持资金，但债务存量已达GDP的117%，而税负已是G7最高，因此任何额外支出都必须以削减或加税对冲。若在1月底前仍无法修补预算，政府应更迭并可能走向2027年总统选举前的重新洗牌，而市场而非选民或许会先用融资成本惩戒这些失职的政治力量。

Over the past five years, Italy, Greece, and Spain have reduced budget deficits to levels consistent with EU rules, but France is the outlier: for three years it has run a deficit of over 5% of GDP. France has not even passed a 2026 budget and now faces repeated parliamentary fights to adopt one by the end of the month.

The fiscal standoff reflects political paralysis: President Macron has just 15 months left, is viewed favorably by under 20%, and his centrist coalition holds only 161 of 577 National Assembly seats. Since the 2023 pension reform that raised the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64, the 2024 snap election that shrank his minority, and a run of prime ministers lasting barely about three months, a budget aiming to cut the deficit to 4.6% of GDP was rejected and the 2025 budget was rolled into 2026 in December.

France needs money for higher defense spending and an economy under pressure, but its debt stock is already 117% of GDP and its taxes are the highest in the G7, so any extra spending must be matched by cuts or higher taxes. If the budget is not fixed by the end of January, the government should fall and politics may shift toward the 2027 presidential election, but markets may punish first through tighter financing conditions.

Source: France is paralysed, and everyone is to blame

Subtitle: The budgetary impasse is just one symptom of collective political uselessness

Dateline: 1月 08, 2026 07:16 上午