硅谷担忧人工智能热潮是泡沫，但更深层的风险在于数字广告正失去“抗衰退”属性：在2008-10年和2020年两次下行中曾相对挺住的线上广告，下一次衰退来临时更可能遭受明显冲击。美国企业通常每年将GDP的1-2%用于广告，而在中国以外全球广告支出中数字渠道占比已约60%，高于2017年的30%。
美国科技巨头吞下约7000亿美元数字广告“蛋糕”的四分之三到五分之四，这块市场据称今年还将再增长约10%。广告几乎贡献了Meta去年约2000亿美元收入、贡献了Alphabet超过4000亿美元收入的大部分，并成为亚马逊增长更快的一块（分析师估计其2025年广告收入接近700亿美元，约为三年前的近两倍），因此五大科技公司合计约30%的销售额和类似比例的利润来自卖广告。
历史与研究提示广告支出比经济更“放大”：2008年的跨国研究估算广告周期深度比整体经济深约40%，而2012年的研究发现衰退期企业削减广告快于销售下滑。尽管谷歌在2025年第二季度广告收入仍同比增长10%，通胀调整后美国广告支出在2006-2009年仍下滑近30%，且研究与投行估计自2020年以来数字广告与GDP增长的相关性上升，叠加小企业依赖与更高合同灵活性，意味着数字广告可能更快被砍。
Silicon Valley fears the AI boom is a bubble, but a deeper risk is that digital advertising is becoming less “recession-proof”: after holding up in the 2008-10 and 2020 downturns, online ads may take a sharper hit in the next recession. In a typical year American businesses spend 1-2% of GDP on advertising, and digital channels are now about 60% of worldwide ad spending excluding China, up from 30% in 2017.
America’s tech titans capture roughly four-fifths of a $700bn digital-ad “pie”, which is said to grow by about another 10% this year. Ads generate almost all of Meta’s roughly $200bn of last-year revenue, most of Alphabet’s just-over $400bn, and a fast-growing slice of Amazon’s (nearly $70bn of ads in 2025, almost double three years earlier), so about 30% of the five firms’ combined sales and a similar share of profits come from selling ads.
History and research imply ad spending amplifies the cycle: a 2008 cross-country paper estimated advertising cycles were about 40% deeper than the economy, and a 2012 study found firms cut ads faster than sales in downturns. Even with Google ad revenue up 10% year on year in Q2 2025, inflation-adjusted US ad spending fell by close to 30% from 2006 to 2009, and studies plus a bank estimate that since 2020 the correlation between GDP growth and digital-ad spending has increased, suggesting small-firm reliance and looser contracts could make digital budgets quicker to slash.
Source: AI is not the only threat menacing big tech
Subtitle: Are Meta and Google ads really recession-proof?
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 05:48 上午 | San Francisco