加拿大在1970年承认中华人民共和国，而在55年后它又一次在权衡自己能在多大程度上偏离美国。关系在2018年逮捕华为高管孟晚舟以及中国拘押迈克尔·斯帕弗和迈克尔·科夫里格之后冻结，并且尽管三人都在2021年获释，政治言辞仍从4月的“最大地缘政治威胁”摆向10月被称为“转折点”的握手以及一次访华邀请。
重新接触部分由美国压力驱动：美国总统唐纳德·特朗普施加25%关税，甚至抛出加拿大成为美国第51个州的说法，而皮尤的一项调查（2月至4月）发现对美国人的好感度为34%，较2024年下降20个百分点。加拿大对中国的看法则朝相反方向移动，安格斯·里德研究所9月的一项民调报告好感度为27%，高于今年早些时候的16%（上升11个百分点），并伴随在9年贾斯廷·特鲁多之后于3月由马克·卡尼出任总理的更替。
经济算术限制了选择：2024年与美国的货物贸易为$762bn，而与中国为$86bn（约大9倍），并且中国只吸收加拿大约4%的出口，即便加拿大目标是在2035年前将对其他市场的出口翻倍。政策摩擦仍在，包括加拿大在2024年末对中国制造EV施加100%关税以及中国对菜籽油、海鲜和猪肉的报复，但11月结束一项疫情时代赴加旅游团限制暗示了较低风险的步骤，例如犯罪合作与民间交流。
Canada recognised the People’s Republic of China in 1970, and 55 years later it is again weighing how far it can diverge from the United States. Relations froze after the 2018 arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou and China’s detention of Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, and although all three were freed in 2021, political rhetoric swung from April’s “biggest geopolitical threat” to an October handshake labelled a “turning point” and an invitation to visit.
Re-engagement is driven partly by U.S. pressure: President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs and even floated Canada as a 51st state, while a Pew survey (Feb–Apr) found favourable views of Americans at 34%, down 20 points from 2024. Canadian views of China moved the other way, with an Angus Reid poll in September reporting 27% favourable, up from 16% earlier this year (an 11-point rise), alongside a March change of prime minister to Mark Carney after nine years of Justin Trudeau.
Economic arithmetic limits choices: 2024 goods trade with the U.S. was $762bn versus $86bn with China (about 9× larger), and China takes only about 4% of Canada’s exports, even as Canada aims to double exports to other markets by 2035. Policy frictions persist, including Canada’s late‑2024 100% tariffs on China-made EVs and China’s retaliation on canola, seafood, and pork, but November’s ending of a pandemic-era tour-group restriction hints at lower-risk steps such as crime co-operation and people-to-people links.
Source: Hedging against Trump, Canada reconsiders ties with China
Subtitle: How far it can go will depend on America
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 07:18 上午 | BEIJING AND OTTAWA