中央经济工作会议为2026年的经济政策定调，而12月10日万科向债权人请求将一笔即将到期的债券再延一年偿还，凸显地产下行仍未结束。自2021年峰值以来新房销售已下跌一半，过去四年的住房下行可能抹去100万亿元人民币（14万亿美元）的房地产财富，且12月10日数据显示出厂价格同比已连续第38个月下跌。
在科技自立方面，DeepSeek显示在算力受限下仍可与美国顶级模型竞争，且“制造业强国2025”启动十年后，中国在电动车制造与可再生能源产业的本土化目标已明显超额完成。12月8日特朗普称将允许中国购买英伟达H200芯片，同时今年前11个月货物贸易顺差已超过1万亿美元（创任何以往全年之最），尽管春季对部分商品的关税被提高到145%以上，而高盛估算中国对东盟新增销售中多达70%是经第三国转口至美国的间接出口。
出口强劲部分源于内需疲弱：今年前11个月进口以美元计同比收缩，通缩使利率被迫低于海外，从而让按通胀调整并按贸易加权的人民币汇率较过去十年平均水平低10%。出口动能也让经济在缺少“非同寻常”刺激下仍接近“约5%”的增长目标，而政策多为渐进式（以旧换新补贴、生育补贴、1年免费学前教育等）并仅强调维持“必要的财政赤字”，通缩持续则加重债务负担并有陷入类似日本的“通缩心态”的风险。
The Central Economic Work Conference set the policy direction for 2026, while on December 10 Vanke asked creditors for an extra year to repay a bond coming due, underscoring that the property slump is far from over. New-home sales are down by half from their 2021 peak, the four-year housing downturn may have erased 100trn yuan ($14trn) of property wealth, and data released on December 10 showed factory-gate prices fell year on year for a 38th straight month.
On tech self-reliance, DeepSeek shows China can compete with America’s best AI models despite computing constraints, and ten years after “Made in China 2025” it has comfortably exceeded localisation goals in EV-making and renewable energy. On December 8 President Donald Trump said he would allow China to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips, and in the first 11 months the goods trade surplus topped $1trn (more than any prior full-year total) even after spring tariffs on some goods rose to above 145%, while Goldman Sachs estimates as much as 70% of extra sales to ASEAN are indirect exports to America via third countries.
Export strength partly reflects weak domestic demand: in the first 11 months imports shrank in dollar terms, and deflation keeps rates lower than abroad, leaving the inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted yuan 10% below its ten-year average. Export momentum also keeps growth within reach of the “around 5%” target without “extraordinary” stimulus, while measures stay incremental (trade-in subsidies, childbirth subsidies, one year of free pre-school, and more) and leaders stress maintaining a “necessary fiscal deficit”, even as prolonged deflation raises debt burdens and risks a Japan-style “deflationary mindset.”
Source: The meaning of China’s record-high trade surplus
Subtitle: The country is too complacent about its export dependence
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 06:42 上午 | HONG KONG