格鲁吉亚执政党“格鲁吉亚之梦”(GD)迅速升级镇压：11月6日检方以阴谋发动政变指控八名反对派领导人，包括前总统米哈伊尔·萨卡什维利，最高可判15年监禁；其中六人已被拘留。一周前，GD已向宪法法院申请取缔三大反对党。自政府在2024年末中止欧盟入盟谈判以来，数十人在抗议中被捕；10月4日试图冲击总统府的参与者面临政变指控。处罚从500拉里（约185美元）的罚款上升到5000拉里，有些罪行现在改为15天监禁。

机构已被俘获：司法系统和宪法法院被视为受GD控制，阻碍被取缔政党重新注册。GD由亿万富翁比比兹纳·伊瓦尼什维利于2012年创立，最初奉行亲西方路线，并在2023年获得欧盟候选国地位，但自有争议的2024年大选以来其权力被巩固——反对派抵制使GD不受挑战地控制议会，“外国代理人”法以及美国国际开发署项目的终止已削弱公民社会，欧盟报告称制衡机制实际上已消失。

在经济和地缘政治上，GD已向俄罗斯和中国转向：俄罗斯现在占格鲁吉亚石油进口的45%（2012年为8%），一家格鲁吉亚炼油厂在十月接收了超过100,000吨俄罗斯原油，去年GDP增长9.4%，同时有关于来自俄罗斯的大量未记录资金流入的报告。GD辩称与俄罗斯保持务实关系以避免经济崩溃，追求与中国和美国MAGA人物的关系，并将通过商业关系和裙带体系维持政权生存而非出于对俄的亲爱作为其战略优先事项。

Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream (GD) has rapidly escalated repression: on Nov 6 prosecutors charged eight opposition leaders, including ex‑president Mikheil Saakashvili, with plotting a coup (up to 15 years’ jail); six are already detained. A week earlier GD asked the constitutional court to outlaw the three largest opposition parties. Dozens more were arrested in protests that began in late 2024 after the government halted EU accession talks; participants in an Oct 4 attempt to storm the presidential palace face coup charges. Penalties have risen from fines of 500 lari (~$185) to 5,000 lari and now to 15 days’ imprisonment for some offences.

Institutions are captured: the judiciary and constitutional court are seen as beholden to GD, stymieing reconstitution of banned parties. GD, founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012, initially pursued a pro‑Western course and won EU candidate status in 2023, but since a contested 2024 general election it consolidated power—an opposition boycott handed GD uncontested parliamentary control, a “foreign agents” law and the end of USAID programmes have gutted civil society, and the EU reports that checks and balances are effectively gone.

Economically and geopolitically GD has pivoted toward Russia and China: Russian crude now supplies 45% of Georgia’s oil imports (up from 8% in 2012), a Georgian refinery received >100,000 tonnes of Russian crude in October, and GDP grew 9.4% last year amid reports of large undocumented capital inflows from Russia. GD defends pragmatic ties with Russia to avoid economic collapse, courts China and US MAGA figures, and treats managing regime survival—through business ties and patronage—rather than pro‑Russian ideology, as its strategic priority.