中国公众习惯于在宣传片中看到解放军展示新式武器、在非洲执行维和巡逻或围绕台湾等争议地区演练，但45岁以下的人无人经历过对外真实打击，而更年长者多不愿回忆1979年越南击退中国入侵的战争。因而，关于美国夜间从委内瑞拉“撤出”尼古拉斯·马杜罗的报道引发高度关注，并迅速在网上扩散。
中国政府迅速谴责这次行动，但舆论从民族主义兴奋延伸到一个反复出现的问题：这是否可能成为对台湾行动的模板；台湾与美国也有人称其或可为习近平对台“斩首”行动提供先例。事实上，这次抓捕对中国对台方针的直接影响可能有限，中国迄今未动武更多源于自身军事能力限制与对美国介入的担忧，而非惧怕国际谴责。
与此相关的数值与趋势显示准备在加速：2015年央视披露解放军在北方沙漠搭建“总统府”模型训练突袭，该训练场自2020年以来面积已扩大到原来的三倍；日本智库在10月获取的卫星图像称还出现其他部会模型。最新一轮演习在12月29日至30日进行，动用数十艘军舰与军机并配合远程火力，模拟封锁、阻止外军介入及打击“台独”人士；台湾方面则在1月5日称已有应对方案并推动提升军费但遭反对党阻拦，同时关注委内瑞拉中国制JY-27雷达疑似失效及其对大陆同型系统脆弱性的暗示。
China’s public often sees flashy PLA displays, yet no one under 45 has lived through an actual Chinese strike on another country, and many older people prefer to forget the 1979 war in which Vietnam repelled China. That backdrop helped fuel intense attention to reports of America’s night-time extraction of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela.
Beijing quickly condemned the raid, but online debate spread widely, with a recurring question: could it be a template for an attack on Taiwan, a view echoed by some in Taiwan and America as a possible precedent for Xi Jinping. Direct impact is likely limited, because China’s restraint has hinged more on capability gaps and fear of U.S. intervention than on legal or diplomatic criticism.
Numbers and timelines highlight accelerating preparation: in 2015 state TV revealed a mock-up of Taiwan’s presidential palace built for assault training, and the site has tripled in size since 2020; satellite images obtained by a Japanese think-tank in October indicate additional ministry models. The latest drills on December 29–30 involved dozens of warships and aircraft plus long-range rocket fire, simulating a blockade, blocking foreign intervention, and strikes on pro-independence figures; Taiwan cited protocols on January 5, pushed upgrades and higher defence spending (blocked by the opposition), and scrutinised the apparent failure of Chinese-made JY-27 radars in Venezuela for clues about vulnerabilities.
Source: China and Taiwan both see lessons in America’s raid on Venezuela
Subtitle: It won’t change China’s calculus but is a case study for “decapitation” strikes
Dateline: 1月 08, 2026 05:48 上午 | Taipei