美国阿片类药物过量死亡人数从截至2023年6月的一年里接近85,000人降至截至2025年4月的一年里48,000人，这是最新数据。1月8日一篇发表于《Science》的论文认为，芬太尼效力上的供应冲击与“缩水式通胀”，而不是降价，与这种突然的全国性下降相一致。

论文中的缉毒局（DEA）查获数据显示，芬太尼粉末纯度在2023年7月达到峰值，然后到2024年底下降了超过一半，映射了死亡人数的下降；在价格黏性的情况下，更低的效力可能意味着每次购买的芬太尼摄入量更低。大约70%的美国过量死亡涉及芬太尼，而Reddit上关于芬太尼“短缺”的提及在2023年末激增，直到版主在2024年1月打击此类讨论；加拿大也出现了类似的强度下降，提示与中国相关的上游变化。

怀疑者指出，死亡率在任何所称的中国行动之前就开始下降（2023年11月之前没有），并且在2024年末之前墨西哥没有前体短缺的证据，因此供应中断可能不完整或有滞后。另一种观点是流行病“燃尽”，认为2023年的水平不可持续，而任何同时发生的供应冲击可能加速了下降，而不是完全造成了它。

U.S. opioid overdose deaths fell from almost 85,000 in the year to June 2023 to 48,000 in the year to April 2025, the latest data. A Science paper dated January 8 argues that a supply shock and “shrinkflation” in fentanyl potency, not price cuts, aligns with this sudden, nationwide drop.

DEA seizure data in the paper show fentanyl powder purity peaking in July 2023, then falling by more than half by the end of 2024, mirroring the decline in deaths; with sticky prices, lower potency likely meant lower fentanyl intake per purchase. About 70% of U.S. overdose deaths involve fentanyl, and Reddit mentions of a fentanyl “drought” spiked in late 2023 until moderators cracked down in January 2024; Canada also saw similar strength declines, suggesting a China-linked upstream change.

Skeptics note the death rate began falling before any cited Chinese actions (none before November 2023) and that evidence of a precursor shortage in Mexico was absent before late 2024, so supply disruption may be incomplete or delayed. Another view is epidemic “burnout,” with 2023 levels deemed unsustainable, while any simultaneous supply shock may have accelerated the fall rather than fully caused it.

Source: Why overdose deaths are falling in America

Subtitle: Researchers point to a grocers’ favourite

Dateline: 1月 08, 2026 11:02 上午 | NEW YORK