美国与以色列在对伊朗战争中的初期目标看似一致,但随着冲突进入第二周,战略分歧逐渐显现。战争在2026年2月28日开始后,两国军方实施了一项约100小时的联合打击计划,迅速攻击伊朗核与军事目标。美以空军协同作战,包括数十架美国空中加油机为以色列战机提供支持,并摧毁了伊朗大部分防空系统,从而在伊朗上空取得空中优势。
然而双方的长期目标可能不同。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡公开表示希望推动伊朗政权更迭,而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的表态则更为模糊。特朗普既要求伊朗“无条件投降”,又暗示可能通过内部政治变化实现类似委内瑞拉模式的权力更替。部分以色列官员认为特朗普更关注能源与地缘政治利益,例如控制伊朗石油供应,因为中国购买了伊朗大部分石油并无视美国制裁。
政治因素也影响战争持续时间。特朗普多次发表矛盾声明,例如3月9日先表示战争“几乎已经完成”,随后又称“我们还没有赢够”。与此同时,内塔尼亚胡面临选举压力,更倾向于延长军事行动以避免在国内政治上显得软弱。虽然双方领导人都可能宣称战争胜利,但若冲突持续或目标无法实现,国内选民可能对这些胜利叙事产生怀疑。
The United States and Israel appeared aligned at the start of the war with Iran, but strategic differences are emerging as the conflict continues. After the war began on February 28, 2026, the two countries launched a roughly 100-hour joint strike campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. American and Israeli air forces coordinated closely, with dozens of U.S. aerial tankers refuelling Israeli jets, and together they destroyed much of Iran’s air-defence network, giving them effective control of Iranian airspace.
However their longer-term objectives may diverge. Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has openly spoken about the goal of regime change in Iran, while President Donald Trump’s statements are more ambiguous. Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” but has also suggested a Venezuela-style outcome in which a more cooperative insider replaces the current leadership. Some Israeli officials believe Trump is primarily focused on energy and geopolitical leverage, particularly the possibility of controlling Iran’s oil flows, most of which are purchased by China despite American sanctions.
Domestic politics also shape the trajectory of the war. Trump has issued contradictory signals, saying on March 9 that the conflict was “very complete, pretty much” before later insisting that the United States had not yet “won enough”. Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces an upcoming election and has political incentives to prolong the fighting rather than end it inconclusively. Although both leaders are likely to claim victory regardless of the outcome, voters in their respective countries may be harder to convince if the war drags on or fails to achieve clear goals.