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伊朗仍保留约400公斤高浓缩铀(HEU),若进一步浓缩足以制造约10枚核弹。国际原子能机构表示这些材料主要储存在伊斯法罕设施,部分仍在纳坦兹和福尔多核设施。若要夺取这些材料,美国或以色列需要执行一次深度突袭行动,例如从波斯湾舰船出发飞行至少500公里进入伊朗内陆。由于距离和防御环境,这类行动将需要复杂补给与空中支援。

军事行动规模将非常庞大。至少需要超过1,000人的战斗群建立安全防线,并通过空袭削弱周边伊朗军力。同时必须夺取附近机场或建立临时跑道,以便空运设备、挖掘机械和核材料处理装置。行动还需持续空中掩护,包括卫星监控、无人机侦察、侦察机与攻击机,并依赖数十架空中加油机维持长时间作战能力。

处理核材料本身同样复杂。专家估计全部库存可能分装在约19个类似潜水气瓶的容器中。处理方式包括现场摧毁、化学稀释或直接运走,但每种方案都存在风险,例如释放有毒氟化氢气体或运输中发生化学反应。若行动还涉及纳坦兹和福尔多等多个地点,其规模将成为历史上最大规模的特种部队突袭之一,尽管部分军事专家认为美国是全球唯一具备执行这种行动能力的国家。

Iran still retains roughly 400kg of highly enriched uranium, which could produce about ten nuclear bombs if further enriched. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that most of the material is stored at the Isfahan facility, with some also at the Natanz and Fordow enrichment plants. Seizing these materials would require a deep raid inside Iran, potentially involving helicopters flying at least 500km inland from ships in the Persian Gulf. Because of the distance and defensive environment, such an operation would demand complex logistics and sustained air support.

The military scale would be substantial. At least a battlegroup of more than 1,000 troops would need to secure the nuclear complex while nearby Iranian bases were suppressed by air strikes. Forces would also need to capture a nearby airfield or build a temporary runway to bring in nuclear-handling equipment, excavation machinery and other heavy gear. Continuous air cover would be required, including satellites, drones, reconnaissance aircraft and strike planes, supported by dozens of aerial refuelling tankers to maintain operations for potentially days.

Handling the nuclear material itself would also be complicated. Analysts estimate the full stockpile might be stored in about 19 containers similar to scuba tanks. Possible options include destroying the material on site, chemically downblending it, or extracting and transporting it away, each carrying significant risks such as toxic hydrogen fluoride release or dangerous chemical reactions during transport. If operations also targeted Natanz and Fordow, the mission would become one of the largest special-forces raids in military history, though some military experts believe the United States is the only country capable of carrying it out.

2026-03-14 (Saturday) · 80a51bd891c1c3ad6930358204f1504cc65d9576

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