该政策反映了当局对大额在线泰铢黄金交易放大汇率升值的担忧。过去一年泰铢升值约9%，在彭博跟踪的亚洲货币中仅次于第一位；官方称这轮上涨部分由黄金相关的美元售出推升，进而挤压出口与旅游业。此前黄金与汇率的60天相关性曾降至两年低点，但最近已回升至自上月9月以来的最高水平，帮助泰铢今年大部分时间维持在每美元约31泰铢附近——一些分析师视其为政策可能再次加码的触发区间。
但成效是否已显现尚未明确。InterGold Gold Trade Co. Ltd. 的 Teerarat Jutavarakul 表示，措施早先公开后在线交易量仅略有降温，需要类似1月那样更大幅度的波动才能判断规则是否有效。央行货币政策委员会在2月25日声明中指出，泰铢升值超出经济基本面，已压缩利润空间有限的出口商财务环境，因此将持续监测汇率与交易压力，并评估现有黄金监管的有效性与充分性，这也再次引发对传统货币政策在遏制汇率波动上边界的讨论。
Thailand will implement tough new rules on retail gold trading from March 1, 2026, aiming to curb speculative activity that has contributed to baht strength. Under Bank of Thailand rules, each person may trade up to 50 million baht ($1.6 million) per day, per platform, in online baht-denominated transactions. USD-denominated trades, physical gold shop dealing, and futures are exempt. The central bank also requires full upfront electronic payment and bans nominee accounts and short selling to improve transparency and market standards.
The policy reflects officials’ concern that large online baht gold trades have amplified currency appreciation. The baht has risen about 9% over the past year, the second-best performance among Bloomberg-tracked Asian currencies. Officials said this rise, partly driven by dollar sales linked to gold, has pressured exports and tourism. After falling to a two-year low, the 60-day correlation between the baht and gold has climbed back to its highest level since September, helping the currency stay near 31 baht per U.S. dollar for much of the year, a level some analysts view as a trigger for deeper policy action.
Yet the effect remains unclear. Teerarat Jutavarakul of InterGold Gold Trade Co. Ltd. said trading volumes softened only slightly after the measures were signaled, and larger price swings like those in January would be needed to confirm impact. In its February 25 statement, the Monetary Policy Committee said baht gains have exceeded economic fundamentals, tightening conditions for exporters with thin margins, and said it would keep monitoring currency moves and transaction flows and assess whether existing controls are adequate, reviving debate over the limits of conventional monetary policy in restraining exchange-rate volatility.