“被问及特朗普何时真正成了“扶不上墙总统”时，文章把赌注放在市场上：在美国进入11月中期选举前夜后，真正的信号点比“最近事件”更早。与其说是伊朗袭击、诉讼争议或美联储罕见公开批评，不如说股市上被普遍看好的“做空拜登、做多特朗普”篮子在2025年中期触顶后，如今已跌去20%，并回到2024年11月大选附近水平。
文章指出，许多与其竞选议题相关的标的仍表现尚可：欧洲军工因“逼盟友多掏钱”与对伊朗战争支持议题受益，油价上扬推高美国油企利润；而特朗普试图推向私有化预期下飙升的房利美与房地美，虽已回落，却仍高于2024年11月。与此同时，关税政策和移民惩戒的受益方则体现出“政策方向对，但受益主体不对”或“执行走样”：关税对国内制造业帮助有限；GEO Group 与 CoreCivic等私人监狱运营商未能按预期吸金，因为预算更多流向ICE与联邦执行系统。
最清晰的输家是市场情绪过热的特朗普叙事，而非单一产业投资，最关键的交易反而是对美国国债的“做空”：预期债务失控、通胀抬升、央行独立性受损。30年期国债收益率在选前曾上行0.5个百分点，入主后又继续再涨约0.4个百分点，短短一年内把“压低国债吸引力”这一赌注从理论转化为现实。特朗普政策在第一项上“表现亮眼”、第二项“中规中矩”、第三项“表现欠佳”，但市场最终更看见“去年的大抬升并未兑现空头收益，反而强化了债券抑值”这条主线。
Trump becoming a lame duck is framed less by headlines than by markets, with the “long Trump, short Biden” basket now 20% below its mid‑2025 peak, roughly back to its level around the November 2024 election. While commentators point to events like the late-February Iran strike, the Supreme Court tariff ruling, or the Fed rebuke as possible turning points, investors appear to have de‑rated the Trump premium earlier.
The most successful trades were tied to campaign themes rather than broad certainty: European defense stocks were supported by pressure on NATO allies, and oil producers gained as Iran war risk lifted prices. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose on reprivatization hopes and remain above their November 2024 levels despite pullbacks, while tariff and private-prison names disappointed due to inconsistent execution—GEO and CoreCivic especially, as spending largely flowed to federal agencies rather than private operators.
The only truly negative outcome was the market’s “Trump media/crypto/big idea” bubble: Rumble returned to pre-election highs and DJT is still down about 80% from its peak before election day 2024. The main unresolved trade has been Treasuries, where shorting debt was expected to win from deficit expansion, inflation, and Fed pressure: the 30-year yield rose 0.5 percentage points before the election and another 0.4 points since November 2024. The president’s mixed policy record reduced confidence in a clean short-bond thesis, even though debt values still weakened.
Source: Bye, bye to the Trump trades
Subtitle: Markets are calling time on many Donald-adjacent bets
Dateline: 4月 09, 2026 03:39 上午