私人信贷目前成为华尔街焦点，氛围偏负面；Blackstone 与 KKR 等主要公开交易的私人信贷基金发行商今年以来股价均已下跌约三分之一。JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon 在4月6日警告杠杆化私人贷款损失“高于预期”，而且很多投资者已动用基金有限赎回额度，尝试在一种通常流动性不足的资产类别中套现现金。与此同时，次级市场交易规模从2023年的约60亿美元增长到2025年的约200亿美元，Blackstone 等巨头在设立专门买入“次级市场”的基金，此外2月 Percent 推出了数字化交易平台，进一步推升活跃度。

此前次级市场交易主要发生在封闭式基金，但现在开放式基金的贷款和基金份额也在逐步进入二级交易。典型基金季度可向市场赎回净值的5%，超出部分按比例分配，OBDC II（Blue Owl 管理）在2月暂停全部赎回触发了行业震荡。高盛估算，若对所有类似 OBDC II 的非上市基金兑现5%赎回，年化资金外流将达450亿美元，超过去年全部次级交易总额的两倍；Cox Capital 已报价收购 OBDC II 投资者持仓（含折扣），Percent 平台也支持将贷款打包证券化出售。

据特许另类投资分析协会数据，2024年仅不足1%的私人信贷基金资产管理规模转手交易，远低于私募股权的2%–3%。尽管私募股权市场更成熟，但因借款方付息现金流，私人信贷在流动性上反而有更大改善空间，随着贷款期限因初创企业长期不上市而延长，次级交易正有增长空间。业内已认为未来几年每年约800亿美元的次级交易并非不可能，若买方与卖方都持续进场且买家偏好低价，早期定价发现或可缓和未来波动。

Private credit has turned into a negative talking point on Wall Street, with large listed private-credit sponsors such as Blackstone and KKR down about one-third so far this year. After JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on April 6 that leveraged private-lending losses are likely to be higher than expected, investors are hitting redemption limits as they try to raise liquidity in an illiquid asset class, while secondary transactions have grown from about $6bn in 2023 to around $20bn in 2025.

The market has also shifted as secondary activity that was once mostly in closed-end funds now increasingly includes open-ended funds, where redemption pressure was triggered when Blue Owl’s OBDC II halted withdrawals in February. A fund-level cap of 5% of NAV per quarter can be reached quickly; Goldman estimates that redeeming 5% across all non-traded peers of OBDC II would create $45bn in annual outflows, more than twice last year’s total secondary volume, even as firms like Cox Capital offer discounts and Percent enables broader secondary trades and loan securitisation.

Liquidity in the sector remains thin, with less than 1% of private-credit AUM changing hands in 2024 versus 2–3% in private equity, suggesting room for growth despite private equity being the more mature market. As loan durations extend and more buyers respond to higher discounts, analysts see $80bn per year in secondary trades as plausible, but a stable market will still depend on both buyers and sellers, with better price discovery potentially reducing future jitters.

Source: Can the secondary market allay private-credit fears?

Subtitle: In the short run, a bit. In the long run, a lot more

Dateline: 4月 09, 2026 03:39 上午