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韓國 Kospi 指數近期經歷了劇烈的波動,受到目前佔市場交易價值超過 70% 的單一股票槓桿 ETF 所驅動。這種新的市場結構引發了基準指數 10% 的暴跌,被如 Samsung Electronics(下跌超過 12%)和 SK Hynix 等主要半導體企業的大幅下跌所拖累。這些最初在五月下旬獲准以遏制資本外流的衍生性產品,依賴於無情的機械式執行,透過以歷史罕見頻率觸發熔斷機制的強制拋售循環,放大了市場的漲勢與跌勢。

儘管市場出現極端的波動,由於前所未有的人工智慧基礎設施支出,韓國記憶體巨頭的基本財務表現依然異常強勁。Samsung 第二季的利潤激增 19 倍,且該公司預計今年將產生約 2500 億美元的營業利潤。同時,隨著高頻寬記憶體需求持續超過供應,SK Hynix 預計將發布創紀錄的年度盈餘,將該產業從歷史性的繁榮與衰退週期過渡到結構性需求階段。

然而,這種強健的潛在價值與近期的股票表現形成強烈對比,其中 Samsung 從其六月的高峰下跌了約 30%,而 SK Hynix 則下跌了近 38%。業界資深人士如 Alexander Redman、Bae Jae-kyu 與 Namuh Rhee 警告,這些高槓桿產品的每日複利會構成嚴重的風險,尤其是在應用於週期性半導體股票時。雖然金融當局現在正採取措施以遏制這種過度的散戶投機,但諸如 InJun Son 等分析師強調,多年的合約與穩固的獲利能力,最終將決定這些記憶體製造商的長期成功。

The South Korean Kospi index recently experienced severe volatility, driven by single-stock leveraged ETFs that now account for over 70% of the market's trading value. This new market structure triggered a 10% plunge in the benchmark, dragged down by massive drops in major semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics (down more than 12%) and SK Hynix. These derivative products, initially greenlit in late May to curb capital outflows, rely on relentless mechanical execution, amplifying both market rallies and declines through forced-selling loops that trigger circuit breakers at historic frequencies.

Despite the extreme market fluctuations, the fundamental financial performance of South Korea's memory giants remains exceptionally strong due to unprecedented artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. Samsung's second-quarter profit surged 19-fold, and the company is projected to generate roughly $250 billion in operating profit this year. Meanwhile, SK Hynix is expected to post record annual earnings as high-bandwidth memory demand consistently outstrips supply, transitioning the industry from historic boom-and-bust cycles to a phase of structural demand.

However, this robust underlying value contrasts sharply with recent stock performances, where Samsung fell approximately 30% from its June peak and SK Hynix dropped nearly 38%. Industry veterans like Alexander Redman, Bae Jae-kyu, and Namuh Rhee warn that the daily compounding of these high-leverage products poses severe risks, especially when applied to cyclical semiconductor stocks. While financial authorities are now taking steps to curb this excessive retail speculation, analysts like InJun Son emphasize that multiyear contracts and solid earnings power will ultimately determine the long-term success of these memory makers.

2026-07-29 (Wednesday) · f9d24b9edc1ed1e4d920bd1655fcdfb089f3fe0c