中国公众对美国与台湾的态度在 2024–25 年间明显转硬。Carter Center 在 3 次调查中访问了 6500 名中国受访者，结果显示：两年前仍有超过一半的人反对以武力统一台湾，到 2025 年末这一比例已降至 38%；在某些情境下支持武统的比例，则从 2024 年的 25% 升至接近一半。去年美台大型军售与日本首相相关表态，似乎共同推动了这种鹰派化。
对美国的负面看法也同步上升。接近四分之三的受访者将美国视为国家安全威胁；62% 支持对美国贸易战进行报复，例如即便会让中国付出代价，也要切断稀土出口；仅 4% 支持就芯片出口管制进行谈判。相比之下，2024 年中国公众对美国的看法还较为分裂。数据说明，Trump 的强硬政策不仅恶化了美国形象，也增强了中国公众要求“平等关系”的倾向。
但民意并非完全复制官方叙事。收入是最强预测变量：高收入者对美国及其文化更有好感，却也更支持中国力量、更认可俄罗斯，并更接受以军事方式解决台湾问题。与此同时，44% 反对派兵支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争；接近一半愿意以部分放弃南海主张换取美国减少在亚洲的安全存在；而尽管官方友好，公众对柬埔寨评价很低。总体上，民意更强硬，但仍存在与国家叙事不一致的边界。
Chinese public opinion on America and Taiwan hardened markedly across 2024-25. In 3 surveys, the Carter Centre polled 6,500 Chinese respondents and found that more than half had opposed using force to unify with Taiwan two years ago, but by late 2025 that figure had fallen to 38%; support for forced unification under at least some conditions rose from 25% in 2024 to almost one-half. Last year’s big America-Taiwan arms deal and comments by Japan’s prime minister appear to have reinforced this hawkish shift.
Negative views of America also increased. Almost three-quarters of respondents saw America as a national-security threat; 62% backed retaliation in the trade war, such as cutting rare-earth exports even at a cost to China; only 4% supported negotiating over chip export controls. By contrast, views of America in 2024 had been more evenly split. The numbers suggest that Trump’s aggressive posture has not only damaged America’s image but also strengthened Chinese demands for a more equal relationship.
Yet opinion does not fully mirror state narratives. Income is the strongest predictor: higher earners are more favourable toward America and its culture, but also more supportive of Chinese power, warmer toward Russia and more open to a military solution on Taiwan. At the same time, 44% oppose sending troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine; almost half would trade away some South China Sea claims for a reduced American security presence in Asia; and despite official warmth, public views of Cambodia are strikingly negative. Overall, opinion is harder-line, but not fully aligned with propaganda.