市场在逻辑上充满认知失调：虽然“无套利”原理要求同等收益的投资组合应有同等价格，投资者却仍试图在彼此都可能更懂行情的博弈中交易。几乎所有交易员都担心霍尔木兹海峡仍关闭，约有全球石油和液化天然气供应的五分之一被困在海峡外，但市场定价却仍呈现对更糟局面的乐观。自海湾最新一轮战争开始后，布伦特原油已上涨40%，约每桶100美元，这一价格只有在普遍预期船队可在数周内恢复经由霍尔木兹运行为前提下才显得合理。
3月23日，特朗普表示美伊就结束战争进行“深入、详细且建设性的”会谈后，布伦特价格立即下跌超过10%，尽管交易员对其压低能源价格动机以及并不稳固的信誉保持谨慎。随后黄金等资产也出现了反弹，但黄金此前正在下滑；作为地缘政治混乱与通胀失控的传统对冲资产，它在本轮危机中同样未能兑现预期，反而更像另一类风险资产。
若最坏情况出现，海湾战争持续数月甚至多年并出现能源冲击、全球衰退，股票投资者将是反应最迟钝的一群。尽管美国股市下挫，标普500仍仅离历史高点不足百分之几；多数大型交易所尚未进入“调整”状态（即离近期高点回撤超过10%），这与许多人一边坐在商品台前讨论霍尔木兹长期关闭的灾难后果一边推高资产估值形成鲜明对照。
Markets display cognitive dissonance despite the no-arbitrage logic that identical payoffs should have identical prices, as investors keep trading as if each counterparty might be no better informed than themselves. Although almost everyone on trading desks fears Hormuz remains closed, trapping about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply, pricing still embeds unusually high optimism; Brent is up 40% since the latest Gulf war began, around $100 per barrel, which only makes sense if traders think tankers can restart Hormuz flows within weeks.
Trump’s March 23 claim that the U.S. and Iran were in “in-depth, detailed and constructive” talks to end the war knocked Brent down by more than 10% despite skepticism over his price motives and spotty credibility. A relief bid then lifted other assets including gold, yet gold had been falling and in this episode looked less like a refuge against geopolitical or inflation shocks and more like another risky asset.
If the stress turns into a prolonged conflict lasting months or years, with an energy shock pushing the world toward recession, equities could be the flattest-footed class: the S&P 500 sits only a few percentage points below its all-time high and most major exchanges are not yet in formal correction territory (a drawdown over 10%). Bond investors remain split over whether inflation from higher energy dominates or a growth slowdown dominates, while central-bank responses are still uncertain, and with repeated false panics in past episodes, ignoring currently obvious high energy, higher inflation and wider deficits risks becoming a costly contradiction.
Source: Markets are gripped by an alarming cognitive dissonance
Subtitle: Investors all seem to think everyone else is wrong
Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 05:35 上午