文章以杰辛达·阿德恩辞任后移居海外为切入，指出西方公共讨论从“移民多少”转向了“永久外流规模”问题。研究整合了31个国家（不含美国）数据，估计2024年离境人数约400万，约比疫情前高20%。
各国异动明显：2025年第四季度与六年前相比，加拿大离境高34%，新西兰离境高29%，瑞典高于60%，爱尔兰公民离境高29%，新西兰本地公民离境高74%。美国2025年外流或达300万（较2021年的200万），同时自2019年以来西方出生者在另一西方国家居住人数增加约200万，美国吸收了超过40%，而希腊自2010年代中期回落、冰岛则创历史纪录，且私人数据显示美国科技人才向欧洲净迁移的情况出现多年后的反转。
文章给出三大驱动：第一是后疫情远程办公常态化，管理与技术咨询等领域美国跨国公司海外雇员较2019年多36%；第二是税负上升，英国最高1%有效税率约40%，较2000年代不足35%上升，美国高收入者综合有效税率也接近历史高位；第三是政治不满和制度疲态加剧。美国方面，布鲁金斯估计在常态约200万基础上，特朗普政策或再引发约100万外流，2019—2024年美国外派人口增长11%，过去十年在德国的美国人超过60%，德国在新西兰的人口较2000年代中期高50%，而新西兰本土出生者约40%会回流并带回资金与技能。
The article starts from Jacinda Ardern’s move after stepping down and argues that Western debate is shifting from how many people arrive to how many now leave permanently. A dataset covering 31 countries, excluding the United States, estimates about 4 million departures in 2024, roughly 20% above pre-pandemic levels.
Country-level increases are broad: Canada’s departures were 34% higher in Q3 2025 than six years earlier, New Zealand’s were 29% higher than 2019, Sweden was over 60% higher, Ireland’s citizen departures were up 29%, and New Zealand citizen departures were up 74%. Brookings estimates U.S. outflow could reach 3 million in 2025 versus 2 million in 2021, while private-sector data suggest a rare reversal with more U.S. tech workers moving to Europe than vice versa; since 2019 the number of Western-born people living in another Western country has risen by about 2 million, of which the U.S. takes more than 40%.
Three forces explain the trend: pandemic-driven normalization of remote work, higher tax burdens, and political dissatisfaction. U.S. multinationals in management and technical consulting employ 36% more people abroad than in 2019; Britain’s top 1% effective income-tax rate is about 40%, up from below 35% in the 2000s, and U.S. top-earner effective taxation is near historical highs. Brookings also says deportation-driven effects could add up to 1 million in 2026 on top of a roughly 2 million baseline, OECD-linked data show U.S. expats up 11% from 2019 to 2024, Americans in Germany are up by over 60% over the decade, Germany’s numbers in New Zealand are 50% above mid-2000s, and around 40% of native-born New Zealand emigrants return with capital, networks, and skills.
Source: Westerners are fleeing their countries in record numbers
Subtitle: This will have economic consequences for the places they flee and their destinations
Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 04:45 上午 | San Francisco