中国计划最快在本季度批准部分英伟达 H200 芯片进口，允许其用于特定商业用途，但明确禁止用于军方、敏感政府机构、关键基础设施及国有企业。该芯片属于较旧一代产品，在美国出口管制许可范围内。若受限机构提出需求，将实行个案审查。此举意味着英伟达有望重新进入全球最大的半导体市场之一。

尽管存在限制，该决定对英伟达仍是重大利好。英伟达首席执行官曾估计，中国 AI 芯片市场未来数年规模可达 500 亿美元。自 2022 年以来，美国出口限制将英伟达在华市场份额从约 95% 压至零。近期，美国在 2025 年 12 月允许 H200 对华出口，但附加 25% 费用。阿里巴巴和字节跳动据称各自有意订购超过 20 万颗 H200，用于模型升级以竞争美国 AI 公司。

在整体业绩层面，英伟达增长势头依旧。公司在 2024 年 10 月预测，到 2026 年底，数据中心芯片相关的累计收入可达约 5,000 亿美元，目前预计将超过这一目标。与此同时，中国正推进半导体自给自足计划，准备向芯片产业投入最高 700 亿美元。华为与寒武纪等本土厂商正加速扩产，寒武纪计划在 2026 年将 AI 芯片产量提升至 2025 年的三倍以上，但在单芯片性能上，英伟达部分旧款产品仍被视为行业标杆。

China plans to approve imports of some Nvidia H200 chips as early as this quarter, allowing limited commercial use while barring military, sensitive government agencies, critical infrastructure, and state-owned enterprises. The H200 is an older-generation chip permitted under US export rules. Requests from restricted entities would be reviewed case by case. The move signals a possible reopening of one of the world’s largest semiconductor markets to Nvidia.

Despite the constraints, the decision is a major win for Nvidia. The company’s CEO has estimated China’s AI chip market could reach $50 billion in the coming years. US export controls since 2022 drove Nvidia’s China market share from about 95% to zero. In December 2025, the US allowed H200 exports to China with a 25% surcharge. Alibaba and ByteDance have reportedly each expressed interest in ordering more than 200,000 H200 units to upgrade AI models competing with US firms.

Nvidia’s overall growth outlook remains strong. In October 2024, the company projected roughly $500 billion in cumulative data center chip revenue by the end of 2026 and now expects to exceed that target. At the same time, China is pushing semiconductor self-sufficiency, preparing up to $70 billion in incentives. Domestic players such as Huawei and Cambricon are expanding rapidly, with Cambricon planning to more than triple AI chip output in 2026, though Nvidia’s older accelerators are still regarded as industry benchmarks on a per-chip basis.