中国总理李强在过去三年逐步成为习近平在重大国际峰会的首席代理人。2023年始，他先后代表习近平出席G20印度峰会、2025年巴西BRICS会议，现将第三次以中国二号人物身份出席南非G20——此次为首次在非洲举行的G20峰会。习近平在2025年的出境行程极度受限，仅访问俄罗斯；其余外交主要转向“主场外交”。尽管高层人事大规模调整持续，习近平对核心圈层的依赖明显加深，并无接班人培养迹象，外界预期其将在2027年连任第四个任期。

G20缺席者包括特朗普（带领美国抵制，批评南非主办为“耻辱”）、普京（受ICC通缉令限制）、阿根廷与墨西哥领导人。中国缺席并不意味着忽视全球南方，北京今年宣布对全部53个与其有外交关系的非洲国家实施“零关税待遇”，并长期向非洲提供数百亿美元基础设施贷款；亦支持非盟加入G20。李强本次途经赞比亚，该国为中国主要债务方并近期发生中资矿难。非洲国家公开表示对习近平缺席“不失望”，强调李强在多边场合的代表性。

尽管李强在首次G20仅取得四场双边会谈（对比习近平前一年11场），其经济官员背景被视为调低地缘政治敏感度、保持议题聚焦经济的工具。在中国吸引多国领导人访华以及国内舆论关注习近平健康状况之际，李强的外访承担了对外窗口功能。多位分析人士认为，习近平日益愿意授权亲信出访，但其外交主导权并未松动。

China’s premier Li Qiang has emerged as Xi Jinping’s principal stand-in at major summits. Since 2023 he has represented Xi at the G20 in India, the 2025 BRICS summit in Brazil, and now the first-ever Africa-based G20 in South Africa. Xi’s 2025 travel has been geographically minimal, limited to Russia, reinforcing Beijing’s shift toward “home-court diplomacy.” Despite sweeping purges of ministers and generals, Xi’s reliance on trusted insiders has deepened and shows no indication of succession planning ahead of an expected fourth term in 2027.

This year’s G20 has multiple absences — Trump is leading a US boycott, calling South Africa’s host role a “total disgrace,” while Putin is constrained by an ICC warrant, and Argentina and Mexico are also skipping. China’s absence does not signal disengagement from the Global South: Beijing granted “zero-tariff treatment” to all 53 African states recognizing it, and has funneled tens of billions of dollars into African infrastructure. It backed the African Union’s G20 accession. Li is also visiting Zambia, a major Chinese debtor and site of a recent accident at a Chinese-owned copper mine. African officials publicly voiced no disappointment, stressing Li’s role as China’s representative.

Li’s engagement level differs from Xi’s — at his first G20 he held four bilateral meetings versus Xi’s 11 the prior year — but his economic portfolio helps steer discussions toward less sensitive issues. As many leaders now travel to China, Xi increasingly receives them domestically, while state media counters perceptions of fatigue. Analysts conclude Xi is delegating more abroad as he consolidates power, with Li serving as a functional diplomatic emissary without diminishing Xi’s ultimate control.