民主党在华盛顿的处境已持续一年，如同在“噪音示威”中敲锅打盆的抗议者：声音很大、立场正当，却大多无效；在完全失去权力的情况下，他们看着共和党任由唐纳德·特朗普攫取原属国会的权力。民主党唯一的筹码是拒绝为政府拨款：他们曾在10月尝试此举，而随着1月30日预算截止日临近将再度动用，这次是因总统对明尼阿波利斯的围攻；如今连一些共和党人也承认当地的移民打击行动已严重失控，因为联邦官员枪击了两名公民，而且一名抗议者亚历克斯·普雷蒂于1月24日被杀后政府立即抹黑他引发反弹。
民调解释了情绪变化：五分之三的美国人认为移民官员的手段过于强硬，想要废除移民与海关执法局（ICE）的人比想要保留它的人更多。对这一主张的支持甚至在共和党选民中上升，如今接近五分之一支持，比6月提高了10个百分点；面对这些数字，特朗普已将明尼阿波利斯行动的强硬代表格雷戈里·博维诺召回，由主张更具针对性做法的汤姆·霍曼接管，而两名共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯和丽莎·默科斯基呼吁国土安全部（DHS）负责人克里斯蒂·诺姆辞职。
拨款博弈在数字上同样清晰：1月30日将有包括DHS在内的六个机构资金到期，而即便共和党能保持一致，在参议院仍需七名民主党人才能跨过阻挠议事门槛；由于众议院要到2月2日才复会，最早也要下周才能把DHS拨款与另外五个机构拆分以降低停摆冲击。民主党要求的“护栏”包括配合地方调查、改进培训、强制佩戴随身摄像头与推进“比文斯修复”，但资金现实削弱了他们的杠杆：据称ICE在夏季从“一项宏大美丽法案”获得巨额注资，足以在未来三年把运营经费“覆盖两遍”，而海关与边境保护局的资金也够用9到11个月，因此共和党可能像去年秋季那样拖过部分停摆而不影响ICE。
Democrats in Washington have spent a year like a “noise demo” protester banging pots and pans—loud, righteous, and mostly ineffectual—watching Republicans let Donald Trump seize powers once held by Congress while their only leverage is refusing government funding. They tried that in October and are poised to try again as the January 30 budget deadline nears, this time over the siege of Minneapolis, where even some Republicans now say the immigration crackdown has gone badly wrong after federal officers shot two citizens and the administration smeared slain protester Alex Pretti immediately after his January 24 death.
Polling helps explain the shift: three in five Americans say immigration officers’ tactics are too forceful, and more people want to abolish ICE than want to preserve it. Support has risen even among Republicans—now nearly a fifth back abolition, up 10 percentage points since June—prompting moves that track the numbers, including recalling Minneapolis hardliner Gregory Bovino, installing the more targeted Tom Homan, and sparking calls from two GOP senators (Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski) for DHS chief Kristi Noem to resign.
The funding fight is similarly numeric: on January 30 money for six agencies including DHS expires, and even a unified Republican caucus still needs seven Democrats in the Senate to beat a filibuster; with the House out until February 2, decoupling DHS from the other five agencies cannot happen until next week at the earliest. Democrats want guardrails like cooperation with local probes, better training, body cameras, and a “Bivens fix,” but their leverage is blunted by claims that summer funding lets ICE run its operations “twice over” for the next three years and that CBP has 9–11 months of runway, allowing Republicans to wait out a partial shutdown much as they did last autumn.
Source: Republicans are waking up to the awful optics in Minneapolis
Subtitle: A partial government shutdown over the president’s immigration campaign looks likely
Dateline: 1月 29, 2026 04:18 上午 | Washington, DC