Iran 战争在本周撼动但未击垮 Wall Street，反而暴露了以分散配置对抗动荡的安全网正在失效。股票与债券多次同步下跌，因油价升破每桶 US$90推高通膨与 Treasury 殖利率；周五非农就业又意外减少 92,000 人，属疫情以来最大跌幅之一。结果是股票与债券出现自 2025 年 4 月关税压力以来最差的联合表现，市场同时面对成长放缓与价格上升，也就是 stagflation 风险。

传统避险与全天候配置同样失灵。US bonds 创下自去年的关税抛售以来最大跌幅，S&P 500 出现自 10 月以来最大单周跌幅，emerging-market equities 则录得自 2020 年以来最深跌势。Gold、consumer-staples shares，以及主打抗震的 trend-following 与 risk-parity 策略都受挫；RPAR Risk Parity ETF 下跌近 4%，为逾三年最差。Barclays 指出，按各资产相对自身历史的波动衡量，压力最高与最低资产之间的落差，在可追溯至 2010 年的资料中从未如此之大。

接下来的关键在于压力是否会由 commodities 外溢至更广泛资产。尽管 S&P 500 仍仅比 1 月创下的历史高点低约 3%，10-year Treasury yields 仍接近 2024 年以来低位，但若油价维持在每桶 US$90（原文 $90）以上且 Strait of Hormuz 持续近乎封闭，通膨压力将持续对抗降息期待。VIX 升向 30，现货相对三个月期货出现近一年来最大倒挂；investment-grade credit spreads 扩大至三个月高点，hedge funds 的净曝险也降至 2022 年以来未见水准。

The Iran war rattled but did not break Wall Street this week; instead, it exposed a failing safety net built on diversification. Stocks and bonds repeatedly fell together as oil rose above US$90 a barrel, pushing inflation expectations and Treasury yields higher rather than lower. On Friday, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000, one of the biggest declines since the pandemic. The result was the worst combined week for stocks and bonds since the tariff stress of April 2025, leaving markets caught between slowing growth and rising prices, or a stagflation threat.

Traditional hedges and all-weather portfolios also misfired. US bonds suffered their biggest drop since last year’s tariff selloff, the S&P 500 had its largest weekly loss since October, and emerging-market equities saw their worst slump since 2020. Gold, consumer-staples shares, and shock-resistant strategies such as trend following and risk parity also fell; the RPAR Risk Parity ETF lost almost 4%, its worst return in more than three years. Barclays said that, measured against each asset’s own history, the gap between the most stressed and least stressed assets is the widest in data back to 2010.

The immediate question is whether stress stays in commodities or spreads further across markets. Although the S&P 500 remains only about 3% below its January record and 10-year Treasury yields are still near their lowest levels since 2024, inflation pressure will keep colliding with rate-cut hopes if oil stays above US$90 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. The VIX climbed toward 30, with spot trading above three-month futures in the largest inversion in almost a year; investment-grade credit spreads hit a three-month high, while hedge fund net exposure fell to levels not seen since 2022.