在西非拥有1400万人口的几内亚南部高地一条山脊下，西芒杜（Simandou）蕴藏约30亿吨铁矿石，按当前市场价格价值约3150亿美元；该项目几乎停摆近30年后，12月3日首批矿石终于装船离岸。它立刻为军政府及其领导人马马迪·敦布亚将军在12月28日总统选举前争取合法性增添筹码，并可能改变全球铁矿石市场格局。
开发该矿需建设620公里铁路和新港口；由于近海水浅，小船还得把矿石从岸边转运20公里到外海大船。材料运输卡车从距矿区约900公里的首都科纳克里出发沿差路行驶约20天且面临劫持风险，使总成本超过200亿美元（被称为全球最昂贵矿业项目之一）；成本由力拓持股25%以及中铝与中—新财团WCS分担，分析人士预计新增供给或使铁矿石价格从目前约每吨100美元在未来几年跌至低至70美元。
若按计划，到2030年西芒杜年出货将达1.2亿吨，约为国际可交易供应量增加6%，并可能令几内亚出口每年增加约120亿美元、几乎使现有贸易规模翻倍。IMF估算在产量爬坡下2030年GDP将比没有该项目高26%，但矿业已占GDP五分之一且贡献逾90%出口、2024年贫困率约43%且存在5万名施工劳动力安置问题；军政府还提出未来15年投资2000亿美元并改善教育（人口一半不会读写），却面临“荷兰病”和腐败等风险。
Beneath a ridge in Guinea, a west African country of 14m people, Simandou holds about 3bn tonnes of iron ore worth roughly $315bn at current prices; after nearly 30 years on hold, the first batch shipped on December 3rd. The project also immediately strengthens the military junta and General Mamady Doumbouya ahead of a presidential election on December 28th, while potentially reshaping global market power.
Unlocking the mine required a 620km railway and a new seaport; because coastal waters are shallow, ore must be ferried 20km offshore to larger vessels. Haulage from Conakry, 900km away, took around 20 days amid hijacking risk, pushing total costs above $20bn; Rio Tinto owns 25% alongside China’s Chinalco and the Chinese-Singaporean WCS, and analysts expect added supply to cut prices from about $100 a tonne to as low as $70 over the next couple of years.
By 2030 Simandou is expected to ship 120m tonnes a year, adding about 6% to internationally traded supply, and could lift Guinea’s exports by about $12bn annually—nearly doubling current trade. The IMF estimates GDP could be 26% higher by 2030 if output ramps up, yet mining already makes up one-fifth of GDP and over 90% of exports, poverty was about 43% in 2024, and a 50,000-strong construction workforce plus a $200bn/15-year investment plan (with half the population unable to read or write) heighten “Dutch disease” and governance risks.
Source: A giant iron-ore mine could bring Guinea riches or ruin
Subtitle: It all depends on how the country’s junta uses the windfall
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 07:14 上午 | Conakry