欧盟的中位年龄为45岁，比美国高6岁，比中国高4岁，而且每名领取养老金者对应的劳动年龄人口已不足3人。与老年人相关的养老金、医疗和长期护理公共支出已相当于欧盟GDP的五分之一，并且仍在上升，这加大了财政压力并挤占了国防和基础设施投资。

美国养老基金管理着43万亿美元资产，约相当于其GDP的140%，而整个欧盟仅略高于5万亿美元、不到GDP的30%，显示出巨大的资本形成差距。在德国、法国、意大利和西班牙，超过90%的雇员主要依赖现收现付公共体系，这些体系几乎不投资，并产生需要政府填补的赤字，规模从德国GDP的2%到意大利GDP的6%不等。

更具资金支持的模式表明存在上行空间：瑞典的养老资产占GDP的比重与美国大致相当，而荷兰和丹麦更高，这三国至少有20%的养老投资组合配置于股票。自2025年初以来，欧洲STOXX 600按美元计上涨36%，而标普500上涨15%；如果全欧盟将养老资产提高到GDP的140%，形成接近30万亿美元的资金池，其中四分之一投向股票且其中五分之一留在欧洲，那么欧洲企业可获得的资本将增加1.5万亿美元，相当于当前18万亿美元STOXX 600市值的约8%。

The EU’s median age is 45, which is 6 years older than America’s and 4 older than China’s, and it already has fewer than 3 working-age residents for every pensioner. Public spending on pensions, health care, and long-term elderly care already equals one-fifth of EU GDP and is still rising, increasing fiscal strain and crowding out defence and infrastructure investment.

American pension funds manage $43trn, about 140% of GDP, while the entire EU has just over $5trn, under 30% of GDP, showing a vast capital-formation gap. In Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, more than 90% of employees rely mainly on pay-as-you-go public systems that invest very little and run deficits governments must cover, ranging from 2% of GDP in Germany to 6% in Italy.

Better-funded models show the upside: Sweden’s pension assets are roughly as large as America’s relative to GDP, while the Netherlands and Denmark are even higher, and all three invest at least 20% of pension portfolios in equities. Since the start of 2025, Europe’s STOXX 600 has risen 36% in dollar terms versus 15% for the S&P 500; if the whole EU raised pension assets to 140% of GDP, creating nearly $30trn, with one-quarter in equities and one-fifth of that staying in Europe, capital available to European companies would rise by $1.5trn, about 8% of the STOXX 600’s current $18trn market value.

Source: European pensions are a $30trn missed opportunity

Subtitle: If only more countries went Dutch

Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 04:16 上午