美国和以色列在2月28日开战时，许多人预期伊朗会扼制霍尔木兹海峡；不到两个月后的4月13日，特朗普政府对往来伊朗港口和沿海水域的航运实施封锁。其公开逻辑是把中立货运当作筹码：若中立航运不能不受阻碍通过，那么伊朗航运也不能，军事拦截被认为可行，只需登检足够多的船只以传达威慑信号。
在此框架下，伊朗继续向外出口更小规模油量并对部分船只征费放行，特朗普希望通过封锁使伊朗经济受压并迫使其在核问题及和平谈判中让步。该计划的强项被认为是执行端的可行性，弱项是全球能源与金融联动的连锁反应。
这是一场赌局，核心在于伊朗财政：特朗普希望实现完全有效的封锁以减少出口、耗尽用于进口的现金，并迫使伊朗在核立场和更广泛和平条件上让步。Ernest Censier称在当前原油储量下，伊朗可能在10到20天内被迫减产；另一种观点认为伊朗仍能承受约六个月压力，通过印钞、在马来西亚和中国附近浮油仓出售约1亿桶，以及利用供应商的非正式信贷。
When America and Israel began the war on February 28, many expected Iran to choke off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; less than two months later, on April 13, the Trump administration imposed a blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal waters. The stated logic is straightforward: if neutral shipping cannot pass freely, then Iranian shipping cannot either, and the military plan is treated as feasible by boarding only enough ships to send a deterrent signal.
The gamble targets Iran’s finances, aiming to cut exports, exhaust import cash, and force concessions on Iran’s nuclear posture and broader peace terms. Ernest Censier estimates that with current crude storage, Iran could be forced to cut production within 10 to 20 days, while another analysis says Iran could withstand about six months through money printing, selling about 100m barrels in floating storage near Malaysia and China, and relying on informal supplier credit.
The bigger economic downside is market stress: the blocked Gulf volumes are already tight, so Iran’s curtailed output is only part of a wider squeeze, and Brent futures could move toward about $150 by end-April if limited inventories are drawn down further; added risk of Iranian or Houthi attacks on Gulf and Red Sea routes could trigger another price surge. The second downside is geopolitical spillover, as April 12’s reported Indian refusal to pay a transit fee and then broad impartial enforcement for all ships in Iranian waters could implicate allies and China alike, raising both diplomatic frictions and fears that a precedent is being set for other chokepoints like Malacca.
Source: Donald Trump’s blockade of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble
Subtitle: It further undermines international law and could lead to new fighting
Dateline: 4月 16, 2026 04:33 上午