在争夺人工智能（AI）主导权的竞赛中，中国在软件上与美国势均力敌，且中国模型如今在热门基准测试上经常胜过许多美国模型，但在硬件上仍存在巨大差距，美国以英伟达为首的芯片制造商领先甚多。12月8日，总统授权向中国“获批客户”出售英伟达H200芯片，以换取美国政府25%的分成，这一做法反映了美国政策制定者在“切断”与“绑定”策略之间的分歧。
尽管H200落后于英伟达最新的Blackwell，并且很快将被其下一代Rubin超越，但其算力仍是此前获准对华销售的最强H20的六倍以上。彭博行业研究估计，该批准可能为英伟达每年带来100亿至150亿美元收入；而政策自2022年实施广泛限制后摇摆不定，促使英伟达先推出符合限制的H800，约一年后规则收紧再推出H20，并在4月一度被禁后又很快逆转。
中国监管机构以安全担忧为由敦促本土公司避开英伟达并推广国产替代品；伯恩斯坦估计，包括华为、寒武纪与摩尔线程在内的本土供应商今年将拿下中国260亿美元AI芯片支出的60%，而几年前美国公司（主要是英伟达）份额还超过80%。寒武纪股价今年上涨逾120%，摩尔线程在12月5日于上海上市首日飙升逾400%；但华为Ascend 910C虽处于国内领先，仍难以追上英伟达，且据美国智库Institute for Progress称要到2027年末才可能推出可匹配H200的芯片，届时英伟达或已领先数代且中国也可能限制H200的采购规模。
In the race to dominate artificial intelligence (AI), China is neck and neck with America in software, and Chinese models now routinely beat many American ones on popular benchmarks, but a wide hardware gap remains, with America’s chipmakers led by Nvidia far ahead. On December 8, the president authorized sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to “approved customers” in China in exchange for a 25% cut for the U.S. government, underscoring divided U.S. strategy between cutting China off and keeping it tied to American technology.
Although the H200 trails Nvidia’s latest Blackwell and will soon be eclipsed by its next, Rubin, it is still more than six times as powerful as the H20, the best Nvidia had been allowed to sell to China. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the approval could add $10bn–15bn in annual revenue, while policy has lurched since sweeping 2022 restrictions, prompting Nvidia’s H800, then about a year later tighter rules and the H20, followed by an April ban that was quickly reversed.
Chinese regulators are urging firms to avoid Nvidia and back domestic alternatives; Bernstein estimates local suppliers including Huawei, Cambricon, and Moore Threads will take 60% of China’s $26bn AI-chip spending this year, a sharp reversal from over 80% for American firms (chiefly Nvidia) a few years ago. Cambricon’s share price is up more than 120% this year and Moore Threads surged over 400% on its Shanghai debut on December 5, yet Huawei’s Ascend 910C still trails far behind and, per the Institute for Progress, may not match the H200 until late 2027—by which time Nvidia should be several generations ahead and China may limit H200 purchases.
Source: Donald Trump’s flawed plan to get China hooked on Nvidia chips
Subtitle: The president is tearing up America’s export-control policy
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 06:01 上午