預測市場的匿名性與監管漏洞使其成為境內外不良行為者的潛在工具。Polymarket的離岸平台不要求用戶實名認證，美國用戶仍可透過VPN繞過禁令參與交易，且不禁止多帳戶操作。在羅馬尼亞總統選舉中，一個名為Gunnar242的帳戶花費超過一百萬美元持續買入親俄候選人西米翁的合約，該帳戶停止交易後，兩個疑似由同一實體控制的新帳戶立即接手，總共虧損約三百六十萬美元。羅馬尼亞政府正在調查是否有外國勢力試圖透過Polymarket影響公眾輿論，這也引發了對預測市場可能被武器化用於選舉干預的嚴重擔憂。
隨著美國中期選舉臨近，預測市場帶來的風險日益加劇。史丹佛大學研究發現，社群媒體上引用預測市場的政治影片數量已超過引用民調的四倍以上。然而媒體經常引用流動性極低的市場數據——研究顯示過去三十天內被媒體引用的選舉市場中，超過三分之一交易量不足以確保數據可靠。與此同時，特朗普政府大幅裁減了負責選舉安全的聯邦機構人員，商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）對預測市場的態度也從嚴格監管轉向支持推廣。專家警告，若缺乏更強的監管護欄和媒體素養，預測市場恐將成為散播虛假資訊、侵蝕公眾對民主信心的新型武器。（關鍵數字：2026, 30）
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have surged into mainstream political discourse following the 2024 US presidential election, yet a closer examination reveals deep vulnerabilities to manipulation. In the California governor's race, a single anonymous wallet spent $44,000 to spike candidate Matt Mahan's odds from roughly 13% to 96% on Polymarket, generating a wave of media coverage that failed to note the move was driven by one untraceable account. The incident illustrates how thinly traded political markets can be gamed at minimal cost to manufacture false narratives, with even brief price distortions sufficient to trigger news stories and social media amplification that create real political momentum.
The platforms' anonymity and weak regulatory oversight have opened the door to potential abuse by both domestic political operatives and foreign actors. Polymarket's offshore platform requires no identity verification, permits multiple accounts, and processes transactions through stablecoins, making it nearly impossible to trace bad actors. In Romania's 2025 presidential election, blockchain analysis revealed that interconnected anonymous accounts spent millions propping up a Kremlin-backed candidate's odds, with new wallets appearing as soon as old ones were exposed. Similar patterns have emerged in Colombia and the Los Angeles mayoral race, where prediction market data was weaponized to spread stolen-election narratives — including by influencers paid by the platforms themselves. (Key numbers: 242)
As the 2026 US midterms approach, experts and former officials warn that prediction markets pose a growing threat to democratic integrity unless significant reforms are enacted. Stanford researchers found that more than a third of election markets cited by major media outlets in a recent 30-day period were too illiquid to be reported with confidence, yet broadcasters like CNN routinely present these odds as authoritative data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has gutted enforcement capacity at the CFTC and related agencies, and the industry's most prominent players have secured political protection through advisory roles for Trump Jr. and investments from Republican-aligned firms. Scholars and election security professionals urge media companies to adopt minimum liquidity standards before citing prediction markets, warning that without stronger guardrails, these platforms risk becoming powerful vectors for disinformation rather than the 'truth machines' their founders promise.