Alphabet 的 TPU 已成为其股价在第四季度上涨 30% 的核心驱动力，市场预期其 ASIC 架构可在 AI 芯片领域切走高达 20% 份额，对应约 9,000 亿美元规模。Alphabet 已与 Anthropic 签下数百亿美元级供货协议，并与 Meta 就“数十亿美元”采购进行洽谈，显示第三方需求迅速成形。摩根士丹利预计 2027 年 TPU 采购量约 500 万片（较先前预期上修 67%），2028 年达 700 万片（上修 120%），主要来自自用与云业务，但外售潜力显著。每额外销售 50 万片 TPU 可为 2027 年营收贡献约 130 亿美元，相当于预期当年 4,470 亿美元总营收的近 3%。

TPU 的成本优势（相较 Nvidia 的通用 GPU 更便宜且更易获得）使其在企业寻找替代方案时具吸引力。Gemini 模型针对 TPU 优化，强化 Alphabet 在模型、云、芯片等 AI 全栈布局的竞争地位。尽管 TPU 的专用性意味着灵活性较低，但在当前投资者关注 AI 成本控制的环境下，ASIC 架构反而更具商业可行性。分析师认为 Alphabet 具备可验证的 AI 动能，而估值仍低于 Microsoft、Apple 与 Broadcom，当前约为未来收益的 27 倍。

风险在于估值已接近 2021 年高位，若芯片业务未能兑现增长，回调压力可能加大。部分基金经理已逢高减仓，但仍认为 TPU 具有成为主要营收引擎的可信路径。随着资本市场将 Alphabet 视为能在 AI 时代持续扩张的“被低估巨头”，芯片外售政策的任何明确化都可能成为未来股价的关键催化剂。

Alphabet’s TPUs have become the central driver behind a 30% fourth-quarter rally, with expectations that the ASIC-based chips could capture up to 20% of the AI semiconductor market—worth an estimated $900 billion. Alphabet has already secured tens of billions of dollars in TPU supply commitments from Anthropic and is in talks with Meta for additional multi-billion-dollar access. Morgan Stanley forecasts 5 million TPUs will be purchased in 2027 (67% above prior expectations) and 7 million in 2028 (120% above previous estimates), largely for internal use and cloud demand but signaling growing third-party potential. Every 500,000 TPUs sold externally could add about $13 billion to 2027 revenue—nearly a 3% boost to the current $447 billion projection.

TPUs’ lower cost relative to Nvidia’s GPUs makes them appealing as companies seek diversification and tighter AI-compute budgets. The Gemini model’s TPU-optimized performance reinforces Alphabet’s cross-stack advantage—spanning models, cloud, and silicon. While TPUs lack GPU flexibility, their efficiency profile aligns with investor scrutiny of AI spending. Analysts see Alphabet’s AI momentum as tangible, and despite shares trading near 27× forward earnings—close to 2021 highs—the company remains cheaper than Microsoft, Apple, or Broadcom.

Risks include valuation pressure if the chip strategy underdelivers, though some portfolio managers argue Alphabet has a credible path for TPUs to become a major revenue engine. With Alphabet increasingly viewed as an undervalued AI-era heavyweight, any move toward formalizing external TPU sales could act as a pivotal catalyst.